Runoff change quantitative decomposition method based on improved Budyko formula

Abstract

The invention discloses a runoff change quantitative decomposition method based on an improved Budyko formula. The runoff change quantitative decomposition method mainly comprises the following steps: firstly, obtaining main hydrological variables of a research drainage basin and estimating a potential evapotranspiration sequence of the drainage basin; secondly, obtaining a land water reserve change sequence of the research drainage basin by adopting a closed drainage basin water balance formula, and coupling and adding the land water reserve change sequence into the original Budyko formula to obtain an improved Budyko formula; then, according to an improved Buddyko formula, constructing a mathematical model of the research drainage basin in a hydrothermal coupling equilibrium state; and finally, further quantifying contribution effects of different variables on the runoff change based on a sample variance definition, and analyzing and summarizing main driving factors for researching the runoff change in the drainage basin. The method not only considers the influence of the land water reserve change on the hydrological cycle of the watershed, but also can perform attribution quantitative analysis on the runoff change in the research watershed, and provides new theoretical support and technical support for runoff prediction and extreme flood disaster event forecast in a changing environment.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of runoff change attribution analysis in the field of hydrology and water resources, in particular to a quantitative decomposition method for runoff change based on an improved Budyko formula. Background technique [0002] Water resources are the most fundamental and necessary elements for the development of human society and industrial progress. Runoff is the most important form of water resources on the earth, and it is also the main source of water resources needed for social development and industrial progress. In recent years, with the increasingly significant climate change and the gradual increase of human activities, the hydrological cycle process in different research areas of the world has undergone significant changes, which has exacerbated the situation that the temporal and spatial distribution of water resources in different basins is seriously uneven, and has caused more damage. Extreme drought and flo...

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Problems solved by technology

However, this assumption often ignores the impact of land water storage on watershed runoff changes, and mainly considers changes in watershed state on a long-term scale, which may lead to large differences between the obtained analysis results and actual results, especially in The above differences are more obvious in regions with significant changes in terrestrial water storage

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