The invention provides a dual-drive deepwater
wellbore integrity
failure risk evaluation method, and belongs to the technical field of
deepwater drilling safety, and the dual-drive deepwater
wellbore integrity
failure risk evaluation method comprises the following steps: based on
fault tree analysis in a bowknot model, identifying a
wellbore integrity failure mode; constructing a differentiated evaluation path according to the failure mode, and quantifying a static equipment
failure risk and a dynamic structure failure risk respectively; constructing a wellbore
system-level
failure probability model through a fault tree and
Bayesian network dynamic mapping mechanism; based on
event tree analysis, modeling is conducted on the
safety barrier state after shaft integrity failure, accident consequences are deduced, and the
occurrence probability of the accident consequences is calculated; and outputting the
system-level
failure probability, the key path contribution degree, the bottom event sensitivity sequence and the accident consequence probability, and solving the technical problem that the
system-level failure risk is difficult to accurately predict and dynamically prevent and control because static
empirical data and a dynamic mechanical mechanism are separated and cannot be coupled and updated in real time.