Pre-warning method and system for mud-rock flow

A debris flow and watershed technology, applied in the field of debris flow early warning methods and systems, can solve the problems of critical rainfall that cannot be accurately defined, difficult to meet, and limited application, etc., and achieve the effects of easy data base, convenient calculation, and simple equipment

Inactive Publication Date: 2010-10-27
INST OF MOUNTAIN HAZARDS & ENVIRONMENT CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCI
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

There are two defects in the concept of critical rainfall value and its determination method: first, the critical rainfall cannot be accurately defined
Various determination methods require long-term series of debris flow occurrence data and rainfall data, spatial and temporal differences of critical rainfall values ​​and many other data, which are not easy to meet in actual work
These defects limit the application of various rainstorm and debris flow early warning methods centered on determining the critical rainfall value

Method used

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  • Pre-warning method and system for mud-rock flow
  • Pre-warning method and system for mud-rock flow
  • Pre-warning method and system for mud-rock flow

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Experimental program
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Embodiment 1

[0026] Such as figure 1 , figure 2 shown. Establish a debris flow early warning system in Jiangjiagou River Basin, Dongchuan District, Kunming City, Yunnan Province.

[0027] The early warning system includes a telemetry rain gauge 1 installed in the Jiangjiagou watershed for real-time observation of changes in daily rainfall values. The observed data signal is transmitted to the rainfall data receiver 2 through the wireless transmission device 6, and then transmitted to the data signal operation processor 3.

[0028] The data signal operation processor 3 is pre-input with long-term observation data of relevant daily rainfall in the Jiangjiagou River Basin. The data are obtained from the long-term rainfall observation data recorded by the rainfall observation points established in the Jiangjiagou watershed. Directly use the historical record data of the watershed itself to form the daily rainfall data series{R n}. Select the daily rainfall data from January 1, 2002 to D...

Embodiment 2

[0034] Such as figure 2 shown. Early warning of debris flow was implemented in Huashibangou Watershed, Beichuan County, Sichuan Province. In the implementation process, the same part as that of Embodiment 1 will not be repeated, and the difference is that:

[0035] Since there is no long-term rainfall observation point in the Huashibangou watershed, the daily rainfall data of the Beichuan area where the Huashibangou watershed is located is selected as the data basis. The daily rainfall data are measured by meteorological satellites, and the data time period is from January 1, 1998 to December 31, 2008, forming a series of rainfall data{R n}. sequence {R n}, the total number of rainy days is 1106, and the maximum value is 87.5mm. Also taking 1.5mm as the unit interval length, the cumulative probability function P of the daily rainfall in the watershed is obtained (x) , and the rainfall eigenvalue x 90 = 16.2 mm.

[0036] Because the aforementioned rainfall data series ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a pre-warning method and a pre-warning system for mud-rock flow of a river basin, which are implemented by presetting a warning rainfall value. Aiming at the technical problems of unavailable correct definition of a critical rainfall value serving as a preset warning rainfall value, high data requirement on the application of a critical rainfall calculation method and the like, the invention discloses a pre-warning method and a pre-warning system for the mud-rock flow of the river basin, which take a characteristic rainfall value as a river basin mud-rock flow warning rainfall value. A relevant long-term daily rainfall observed data sequence of a specified mud-rock flow river basin is selected as a basis and a certain rainfall characteristic value which is in the daily rainfall data sequence and directly and firmly related to the occurrence of the mud-rock flow is determined to be used as the warning rainfall value of the river basin for the pre-warning method and the pre-warning system for the mud-rock flow by calculating and analyzing. The method has the advantages of reliable principle, easily-acquired basic data, simple calculation index, scientific, simple and convenient calculation process, simple equipment of a mating system and low construction cost. Tests show that the method and the system have high prediction accuracy for the occurrence of the mud-rock flow of the river basin.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a mud-rock flow early warning method and system, in particular to a mud-rock flow early warning method and system realized by prefabricating warning rainfall values. Background technique [0002] Debris flow is a natural phenomenon in which fluid composed of poorly sorted rocks, soil, and large amounts of water flows down slopes and valleys. Sufficient water sources are one of the prerequisites for the formation of most debris flows. Therefore, rainfall, especially heavy or long-lasting rainfall, has become the main inducing factor for the formation of debris flows. Among them, the debris flow triggered by rainfall is called rainstorm debris flow, which is the most common type of debris flow, and its occurrence time has a strong correlation with rainfall conditions. [0003] The forecast and early warning technology of rainstorm and debris flow is mainly realized through rainfall monitoring and rainfall data analysis in the b...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G08B21/10G01W1/14
CPCY02A90/10
Inventor 胡凯衡崔鹏洪勇韦方强庄建琦王传昶
Owner INST OF MOUNTAIN HAZARDS & ENVIRONMENT CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCI
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