Wheat output predication method based on revised regional climate mode data

Abstract

The invention provides a wheat output predication method based on reversed regional climate mode data. By the observed historical daily meteorological data, the data of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, the rainfall intensity, the rainfall frequency and solar radiation which are revised in a future regional climate mode are revised, so that the data of the regional climate not only keeps the original annular varying pattern, but also complies with the historical meteorological varying pattern of a station, to solve the problems brought about systematic deviation of simulation values and observed data of the regional climate, too few continuous drought days, difficulty in recurrence of high rainfall events, unmatching of time and space scale and the like. The further revised regional climate mode data are combined with a wheat growth simulation system, so that the prediction accuracy of wheat maturity day and wheat output is effectively improved, and the wheat growth simulation system is unified with the regional climate mode on the scale.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention provides a wheat yield prediction method based on revised regional climate model data, and particularly relates to improving the wheat yield prediction accuracy by using a wheat growth simulation system combined with the revised regional climate model data. Background technique [0002] For more than half a century, many wheat growth simulation systems have appeared in the world, such as the DSSAT system in the United States, the APSIM system in Australia, and the WheatGrow system in China. The mechanism relationship of the process can be used to quantitatively predict the growth and development of wheat and the process of yield formation. In order for the wheat growth simulation system to realize the prediction and evaluation of future agricultural production, it must first ensure the input of future meteorological data, and the regional climate model can predict future meteorological data. Many studies have affirmed the accuracy of reg...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The invention provides a wheat yield prediction method based on the revised regional climate model data, that is, the future data generated by the regional climate model is revised through the measured daily historical meteorological data, and the systematic deviation and excessive The small number of consecutive drought days, the inability to reproduce high rainfall events, too much micro-rainfall weather, and the combination with the field-scale wheat growth simulation system have the problem of scale mismatch, so as to improve the wheat growth simulation system. The purpose of predicting accuracy of wheat growth period and yield

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