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Estimation-deviation-method-based ensemble typhoon forecasting method

A technology of deviation and typhoon, which is applied in the field of integrated typhoon forecasting by the forecast deviation method, can solve the problems of large forecast deviation and storm surge forecast error, and achieve the effect of improving forecast accuracy and forecast stability

Active Publication Date: 2017-03-15
HOHAI UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] Although the super-integrated forecast results are lower than the average error of each station, due to its consideration based on the historical performance of each station, large forecast deviations are prone to occur in a single typhoon forecast, resulting in the Big error in storm surge forecast

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  • Estimation-deviation-method-based ensemble typhoon forecasting method
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  • Estimation-deviation-method-based ensemble typhoon forecasting method

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Embodiment Construction

[0034] Below in conjunction with embodiment the present invention will be further described.

[0035] An integrated typhoon forecasting method based on the forecast deviation method, comprising the following steps:

[0036] S1: Collect the 24-hour typhoon position forecast values ​​of N stations (preferably, N≥3) required by the estimated deviation method, including 24 hours before the start time of the report is 30, 24, 18, 12, 6, and 0 hours Hourly forecast value, the forecast time is 6 hours ago, the current time, 6, 12, 18, and 24 hours later, a total of 6×N forecast values;

[0037] S2: Collect the measured position of the typhoon required by the estimated deviation method, including the measured position 6 hours ago and the measured position at the current moment;

[0038] S3: For each station, using the five-point estimation method, according to the measured position 6 hours ago, the measured position at the current time, the forecast time is the forecast position 6 ho...

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Abstract

Disclosed in the invention is an estimation-deviation-method-based ensemble typhoon forecasting method. During a typhoon forecasting process, existing practically measured data as well as forecasting data of different forecasting stations are utilized fully to improve the forecasting precision of 24-hour forecasting of the typhoon position. On the basis of practically measured typhoon positions at a current time and before six hours as well as forecasted typhoon positions in the next six, twelve, eighteen, and twenty-four hours by all stations, ensemble typhoon forecasting positions in the next six, twelve, eighteen, and twenty-four hours are calculated successively, so that the ensemble forecasting positions are closer to the true value by being compared with forecasted results by all stations. Using the method, the 24-hour forecasting precision and forecasting stability of typhoon forecasting can be improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of typhoon forecasting, in particular to an integrated typhoon forecasting method based on an estimation deviation method. Background technique [0002] For the specific issue of typhoon track forecast, after a typhoon occurs and is monitored, forecast stations in different countries and regions will provide forecast tracks, and these forecast tracks will vary in location and maximum wind speed. The forecast accuracy of storm surge is controlled by the forecast accuracy of typhoon field. Therefore, the choice of typhoon forecast path has become an important problem in storm surge forecast. In order to make full use of the forecast data provided by different forecast stations and provide a more reliable and accurate typhoon track forecast result, the method of multi-mode super-integrated method was proposed, comprehensively considering the forecast results of different stations, according to the forecast resu...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10
CPCG01W1/10
Inventor 陈永平潘毅袁杰颖尹硕嵇静陈淑敏王家奇陈佰川
Owner HOHAI UNIV
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