Inaccurate Probability Calculation Method for Steady State Availability of Power System
A technology for steady-state and probabilistic calculation of power systems, applied in computing, computer components, data processing applications, etc., and can solve problems such as difficulties in engineering realization and large amount of calculation in the probability interval of steady-state availability.
Active Publication Date: 2020-10-30
UNIV OF ELECTRONICS SCI & TECH OF CHINA
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However, as the scale of the power system becomes larger, the structure becomes more and more complex, and more and more components are included, the interval calculation or optimization algorithm is used to infer the probability interval of the steady-state availability of the power system according to the interval reliability index of the components. The amount of calculation is large, and the engineering implementation is very difficult
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[0015] In order to facilitate those skilled in the art to understand the technical content of the present invention, the content of the present invention will be further explained below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
[0016] First, a brief description of the imprecise probability theory and the gamma index model used in this embodiment:
[0017] 1 Inexact probability theory
[0018] 1.1 Gamma index model
[0019] The gamma index model can obtain the interval value of the distribution function of the random variable X whose parameter is the λ exponential distribution from limited samples for:
[0020]
[0021]
[0022] F (x), respectively represent the lower bound and upper bound of the interval value of the distribution function of the random variable X, T x Represents the sum of the sample data; x represents the function argument; x represents the sample data; N x Indicates the capacity of sample data x, s is a parameter;
[0023] In this embod...
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The invention discloses an inaccurate probability calculation method for the steady-state availability of a power system, aiming at the large amount of calculation in the prior art to infer the probability interval of the steady-state availability of the power system by using interval operations or optimization algorithms based on the interval reliability index of components, It is a very difficult problem in engineering implementation; this application uses the gamma index model to conduct inexact probability inference on the conditional distribution of the system state residence time, thereby obtaining the expected interval value of the state residence time condition; applying the Markov property of the power system, that is The conditional independence of the state residence time of the power system, without calculating the inaccurate reliability index of the components, directly uses the sample data of the system to derive the upper and lower bound expressions of the interval of the steady-state availability of the power system.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of electric power planning and reliability, in particular to an inaccurate probability inference technology applied to the steady-state availability of electric power systems. Background technique [0002] Power system reliability assessment and prediction is essentially to analyze and predict various uncertain factors in the operation process of the power system. Uncertainty can be divided into two types: objective uncertainty (accuracy uncertainty) and Epistemic uncertainty (imprecise uncertainty). The research on the objective uncertainty of the power system has been relatively mature, but there is cognitive uncertainty in the power system: in recent years, with new energy and new technologies connected to the power grid, new components that have just been put into operation lack or may not fail Statistical data, at this time the traditional reliability evaluation based on the law of large numbers is obviously no ...
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IPC IPC(8): G06K9/62G06Q50/06
Inventor 刘碧滕云龙黄琦
Owner UNIV OF ELECTRONICS SCI & TECH OF CHINA