A Flood Probability Forecasting Method Based on Error Transfer Density Function

A density function, flood forecasting technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, database management systems, etc., can solve problems such as the lack of mature theories and technical methods, and achieve the effect of quantifying forecast uncertainty

Active Publication Date: 2021-12-28
HOHAI UNIV
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  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

At present, in our country, no matter at the research level or the application level, relatively mature theories and technical methods have not yet been formed.

Method used

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  • A Flood Probability Forecasting Method Based on Error Transfer Density Function
  • A Flood Probability Forecasting Method Based on Error Transfer Density Function
  • A Flood Probability Forecasting Method Based on Error Transfer Density Function

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Embodiment Construction

[0045] The invention is further clarified in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments, and it is to be understood that the invention is intended to illustrate the invention and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.

[0046] The following examples of the present invention made in conjunction with further instructions.

[0047] like Figure 1 - Figure 4 As shown in A flood probabilistic prediction error method based on the transfer function of density, characterized by comprising the steps of:

[0048] Step 1: Historical database construction, based on historical flood forecast data f and corresponding measured flow data O, establish a flood forecast history database (F, O);

[0049] Step 2: prediction error difference error analysis, in the history database background, is determined trend statistical characteristic values ​​flood forecast error Ξ over forecast flow rate F, and then the estimated prediction error distribution changing trends forecast...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a flood probability forecasting method based on an error transfer density function. By constructing the historical database of flood forecasting, analyzing the change function of the statistical characteristic value of the forecast error with the forecast flow according to the historical database, based on the first-order autoregressive assumption of the forecast error, deduce the transition density function of the forecast error, and then use the total probability formula to deduce the value of the forecast error Distribution function. Finally, the distribution function of the predictor is calculated by using the distribution function calculation rule of the random variable function. Realize flood probabilistic forecasting and quantify flood forecast uncertainty. The patent of the present invention is applied to the flood probability forecast of a certain station. After verification of the data results, the patent of the present invention can effectively realize the flood probability forecast.

Description

Technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the field of predictive hydrological forecast, particularly to a method of flood forecasting error probability density function based on the transfer. Background technique [0002] An important content of flood forecasting non-engineering flood control measures, as well as hydrological hot issues of scientific research. The development of theory and methods of flood forecasting, hydrology experienced a black box model consists of an empirical model to have a system of theoretical concepts, to the integration of physical concepts conceptual hydrological model and empirical generalization, as well as physical based distributed hydrological model . But all along, setting a deterministic forecasts are provided flood forecasting. Due to the complexity and limitations of human understanding of the level of natural hydrological processes, real-time flood forecasting in the presence of input, uncertainty model structure and model pa...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06F16/2458G06F16/25G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/26Y02A10/40
Inventor 梁忠民蒋晓蕾牛小茹胡义明王军李彬权
Owner HOHAI UNIV
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