An analysis method of electric energy substitution potential in a region based on GM grey prediction

A technology of electric energy substitution and gray prediction, which is applied in prediction, neural learning methods, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as high requirements for original data applicability, inability to improve prediction accuracy through multiple training, and inability to analyze load prediction results.

Inactive Publication Date: 2019-02-05
YUNNAN POWER GRID +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In the traditional analysis method, the electric energy substitution analysis scheme has the following defects: 1. It can only focus on predicting the load result from a certain factor, and cannot comprehensively analyze the load forecasting result from multiple factors; 2. The load forecastin

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  • An analysis method of electric energy substitution potential in a region based on GM grey prediction
  • An analysis method of electric energy substitution potential in a region based on GM grey prediction
  • An analysis method of electric energy substitution potential in a region based on GM grey prediction

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[0041] A certain embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, see figure 1 ( figure 1 As an auxiliary interpretation of the claims and technical solution descriptions in the specification).

[0042] The invention discloses a method for analyzing the electric energy substitution potential of a certain area based on GM gray prediction, and the method includes the following steps:

[0043] Step 1: Determine the relationship between the impact factor and the potential of electric energy substitution;

[0044] Step 2: Establish a GM gray scale prediction model;

[0045] Step 3: Solve the time response equation to obtain the output sequence;

[0046] Step 4: Determine the weight of the neural network model, output the result, and substitute it into the relational expression in step 1 to obtain the predicted annual electric energy substitution potential value;

[0047] In the step 1, determine the relationshi...

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Abstract

The invention provides a GM gray prediction electric energy substitution potential analysis method of a certain region, which relates to the electric power system field, and is invented for solving the problem that the electric energy substitution potential of the traditional region is difficult to synthetically consider a plurality of influence factors of load prediction, the prediction accuracyis low, and the electric energy substitution potential has no self-adaptive ability. The method of the invention comprises the following steps: determining an influence factor of the regional electricenergy substitution potential; Determine the analysis and calculation formula of electric energy substitution potential; Establish GM grey prediction model equation; Determine the correlation coefficient of the equation; Solve the response equation; Combined with the time response equation, the neural network model is used to predict the power consumption and energy consumption. Using the time response equation of electric energy substitution potential, the electric energy substitution potential level of this region is calculated and analyzed at each time node. The invention is applied to theanalysis and prediction of the regional electric energy substitution potential, and provides a feasibility study method with high accuracy and self-adaptability for the analysis of the electric energy substitution potential.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of power system load forecasting, in particular to a method for analyzing the electric energy substitution potential of a certain area based on GM gray forecasting. Background technique [0002] In the traditional regional electric energy substitution potential analysis scheme, the long-term regional load forecast is carried out through conventional load forecasting methods (elasticity coefficient method, large user method, load density method, etc.), combined with the proportion of electric energy substitution potential of various industries in the region at the current stage, Predictive analysis of long-term regional electric energy substitution potential. [0003] In the traditional analysis method, the electric energy substitution analysis scheme has the following defects: 1. It can only focus on predicting the load result from a certain factor, and cannot comprehensively analyze the load forecasting result from m...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06N3/08
CPCG06N3/08G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 刘宝林吴先哲
Owner YUNNAN POWER GRID
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