Wind speed modeling method based on time correlation

Abstract

The invention provides a wind speed modeling method based on time correlation. Firstly, historical wind speed data of a wind power plant are obtained; and analyzing historical wind speed information of the wind power plant, determining a Weibull distribution model according to the wind speed distribution information, concluding a wind speed change rule according to the wind speed change quantity information, defining a wind speed time correlation concept according to the wind speed change rule concluded by the wind speed change quantity information, and calculating by using the following pointof wind speed distribution. In the calculation process, the wind speed distribution condition of the next point with the basic point as the reference is jointly calculated in combination with the obtained wind speed distribution and wind speed time correlation, and random numbers are selected through sampling so that the value of the point can be determined according to probability randomness under the distribution. Wherein the calculated basic point is an end point in the sequence before the calculation is carried out at the time. After calculation and sampling are completed, whether the number of the data contained in the sequence meets the requirement or not is judged so as to determine whether to continue to circulate or output the data, and finally the wind speed model based on timecorrelation is obtained.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a wind speed description method of a wind farm, in particular to a wind speed modeling method by analyzing wind speed variation rules between wind speed sampling points, which improves the defect that the wind speed model does not have continuity during traditional wind speed evaluation, and belongs to the technical field of wind resource evaluation. Specifically, it is a wind speed modeling method based on time correlation. Background technique [0002] As a clean energy source, wind power has been highly valued by countries all over the world, especially today when fossil energy is increasingly exhausted. The large-scale development and utilization of wind power has also become an important part of my country's energy strategy. my country's wind power technology started relatively late, but it has developed rapidly. The installed capacity of wind power has increased year by year, and the proportion of wind power in power supp...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the traditional two-parameter Weibull distribution does not consider the time correlation of wind speed when depicting the wind speed distribution. In the simulation process, only the wind speed distribution density can be used to obtain a disordered probability sequence, which is different from the wind speed sequence with changing rules in actual working conditions. There is a big difference

Therefore, the traditional two-parameter Weibull distribution still has certain limitations in the assessment of wind resources.

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