Wind resource utilization rate prediction and evaluation method
A utilization rate and wind resource technology, which is applied in the field of wind engine monitoring, can solve problems such as the evaluation of wind energy utilization rate fluctuations, the prediction and evaluation of wind resource utilization rate fluctuations, and the health status monitoring and evaluation of wind turbines without wind resources.
Active Publication Date: 2019-11-05
HEBEI UNIV OF TECH
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Problems solved by technology
CN105005581A discloses a method and system for processing wind resource data in wind farms. This technology only monitors data such as wind speed and direction, but does not monitor and evaluate the utilization rate of wind resources and the health status of wind turbines; CN104331621B discloses a wind resource calculation method, this method does not fully consider the wind measuring location and the operating state of the wind turbine, but simply classifies the wind resource level according to a single index; CN103696913B discloses a method for real-time monitoring of wind energy utilization deviation when the wind turbine is running, and the utilization deviation The method of real-time monitoring of wind energy utilization deviation, but did not evaluate the degree of fluctuation of wind energy utilization
In short, the existing technical solutions do not predict and evaluate the fluctuation degree of wind resource utilization
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[0112] In this embodiment, a method for predicting and evaluating wind resource utilization is considered. The technical parameters of the selected 2MW wind turbine generator are shown in Table 1 below:
[0113] Table 1.2 MW wind turbine technical parameters
[0114]
[0115] Calculate the actual wind speed v and the actual active power P of the wind turbine in a typical wind farm SCADA system throughout the year, perform data preprocessing, and draw a P-v scatter diagram, such as figure 1 The wind speed-power scatter diagram after processing in this embodiment is shown. The filtered data is randomly divided into 2 subsets, both of which include training samples and test samples. The first subset is used for wind turbine power model parameter identification and model evaluation, and the second subset is used for wind resource utilization prediction, error probability distribution statistics and confidence interval estimation.
[0116] In this embodiment, a method for predicting and...
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The invention relates to the field of monitoring of wind engines, in particular to a wind resource utilization rate prediction and evaluation method which includes the steps: constructing a wind turbine generator power five-parameter model; performing power model parameter identification by a grey wolf optimization algorithm; dividing wind speed sections at equal intervals, and establishing wind resource utilization rate prediction error probability distribution of each wind speed section by adopting a non-parametric kernel density estimation method; carrying out interval estimation considering the wind resource utilization rate, and solving a confidence interval of the wind resource utilization rate of the wind turbine generator under a given confidence degree; predicting and evaluating fluctuation degree of wind resource utilization rate. According to the method, the defect that the fluctuation degree of the wind resource utilization rate is not predicted and evaluated in the prior art is overcome.
Description
Technical field [0001] The technical scheme of the present invention relates to the monitoring field of wind engines, and specifically is a method for predicting and evaluating wind resource utilization. Background technique [0002] The utilization rate of wind resources reflects the performance of wind turbines. The forecast and assessment of the utilization rate of wind resources is one of the effective methods for wind turbine status monitoring and wind power prediction. The intermittency, randomness and volatility of wind energy make the power generation performance of wind turbines deviate from the design index and the stability of wind resource utilization rate is poor, which brings great challenges to the safe operation and economic dispatch of the power grid. [0003] At present, there are few literatures on the prediction and evaluation of wind resource utilization. General wind resource evaluation methods rarely evaluate wind resource utilization, and are limited to dete...
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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06G06N3/00
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/0639G06Q50/06G06N3/006Y04S10/50Y02E40/70
Inventor 姚芳董超群刘明宇王晓鹏
Owner HEBEI UNIV OF TECH