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Deep learning-based traction load ultra-short-term prediction method

A technology of ultra-short-term forecasting and traction load, applied in neural learning methods, forecasting, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of difficulty in establishing a forecasting model and insufficient forecasting accuracy, and achieve the effect of solving the problem of reactive power output coordination and reducing the difficulty of solving

Pending Publication Date: 2021-09-17
XIANGTAN UNIV
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] The invention provides a traction load ultra-short-term forecasting method, which can solve the problems of insufficient forecasting accuracy of traditional forecasting methods and difficulty in establishing forecasting models, and can obtain load forecasting results that meet the actual requirements of the project

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  • Deep learning-based traction load ultra-short-term prediction method
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Embodiment Construction

[0047] In order to make the features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and comprehensible, the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0048] A day-ahead dynamic reactive power optimization method for active distribution network such as figure 1 shown, including:

[0049] Step S101, pre-process the load data, and decompose it into several subsequences by using discrete wavelet decomposition method;

[0050] Step S102, using the temporal convolutional network model to predict medium and low-frequency sequences, and using the support vector regression model to predict high-frequency sequences;

[0051] Step S103, summing up the prediction results of each sequence to obtain the final prediction result;

[0052] The specific implementation method of step S101 is: use the discrete wavelet decomposition method to decompose the traction load data, and the mathematical expression of the specific ...

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Abstract

Ultra-short-term prediction of a traction load is a key link in electric energy control of an electrified railway. Aims at the characteristics that the traction load random volatility is high, the jump amplitude value is large, and no-load is frequent, the invention provides a DWT-TCN-SVR combined prediction method which integrates DWT (discrete wavelet transform), TCN (temporal convolutional network) and SVR (support vector regression). The method comprises the following steps: firstly, decomposing a traction load time sequence into low-frequency, intermediate-frequency and high-frequency subsequences by using a wavelet decomposition method, then predicting the low-frequency and intermediate-frequency sequences by using a TCN model, predicting a high-frequency part by using an SVR model, and finally superposing and restoring respective prediction results to obtain a final prediction result.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of load forecasting, in particular to an ultra-short-term forecasting method of traction load. Background technique [0002] With the continuous development of electrified railways in my country, the total length of electrified railways has now ranked first in the world, but the rapid development of railways has also brought negative sequence, reactive power, harmonics and other effects. With the development of high-speed and heavy-duty railways, reactive power and harmonics are no longer the main problems, but the problem of negative sequence needs to be further resolved. Realizing the accurate prediction of traction load and grasping its changing trend in different time scales in the future can not only alleviate the negative sequence problem in power quality, but also help improve the reliability of traction power supply system. [0003] Aiming at the problem of traction load forecasting, relevant schola...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/30G06N3/04G06N3/08
CPCG06Q10/04G06N3/08G06N3/045G06Q50/40Y04S10/50
Inventor 马茜王豪陈浩
Owner XIANGTAN UNIV
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