Power distribution network risk early warning method based on Markov process

Abstract

The invention discloses a power distribution network risk early warning method based on a Markov process. The method comprises the following steps: S1, determining risk factors of a power distribution network according to a risk identification theory; S2, collecting index information influencing the state change of each risk factor in real time; S3, predicting the future risk condition of the power distribution network according to a risk probability prediction method, and evaluating whether the risk degree of the power distribution network is acceptable or not according to a risk criterion; if the evaluation degree is acceptable, repeating step S2; and if the evaluation degree is not acceptable, skipping to step S4; and S4, starting an early warning program, issuing early warning information and entering a risk prevention and control program. According to the invention, through circulation of six links of risk factor identification, risk information acquisition, risk data processing, risk alert issuing, risk prevention and control and effect evaluation, timely early warning and effective control of the power distribution network risk are realized; and based on the Markov theory, the risk state of the power distribution network at the future moment is predicted, and the prediction result is more visual and reliable.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of distribution network operation control, in particular to a distribution network risk early warning method based on a Markov process. Background technique [0002] According to statistics, more than 80% of user power outages are caused by faults in the distribution network. Therefore, effective early warning of risks in the operation of the distribution network is required to take timely risk prevention and control measures to reduce or even avoid failures. It is particularly important to ensure the safety and reliability of power supply. [0003] The topology of the distribution network is complex, there are many types of equipment, and the distribution is relatively scattered. The operating status of the power grid is affected by external factors such as the natural environment and social environment, as well as internal factors such as grid structure, equipment level, and personnel operations. Various f...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The topology of the distribution network is complex, there are many types of equipment, and the distribution is relatively scattered. The operating status of the power grid is affected by external factors such as the natural environment and social environment, as well as internal factors such as grid structure, equipment level, and personnel operations. Various factors are intertwined. , the randomness of fault occurrence is strong, and the risk early warning method based on monitoring data such as power flow, voltage, frequency, etc. in the transmission network is not applicable to the distribution network

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