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Numerical model rainfall forecast product release method based on space-time local model

A numerical model, localized technology in time and space, applied in data processing applications, forecasting, weather forecasting, etc., can solve the problems of precipitation uncertainty, different precipitation forecasting and forecasting capabilities, etc., and achieve the effect of improving the level of interpretation.

Pending Publication Date: 2022-01-28
海南省气象科学研究所
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] However, since the numerical model can only approximate the description of the atmosphere and the atmospheric motion has chaotic characteristics, there are always uncertainties in the prediction of precipitation by the numerical model
In addition, different models have different implementation plans in different countries, resulting in different prediction capabilities of different models for different regions and different periods of precipitation.

Method used

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  • Numerical model rainfall forecast product release method based on space-time local model
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  • Numerical model rainfall forecast product release method based on space-time local model

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Experimental program
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Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0065] Objective interpretation is carried out on the fine grid (0.125°×0.125°) precipitation forecast products of Hainan Island on the first day reported by the ECMWF model at 00:00 (UTC) every day.

[0066] Step 1: Divide Hainan Island into 18 sub-regions according to administrative divisions;

[0067] Step 2: Obtain the fine grid (0.125°×0.125°) precipitation forecast product of Hainan Island on the first day reported by the ECMWF model every day at 00:00 (UTC) during the forecast period;

[0068] Step 3: Obtain the real-time analysis product of CMPAS China's daily precipitation rapid fusion (0.05°×0.05°); and use the inverse distance interpolation method to build a sample set (observation data, forecast product) with fine-grid precipitation forecast products of Hainan Island in the same period of history, At the same time, the sample set (observation indicator value, forecast product) is obtained through conversion;

[0069] Step 4: Carry out pretreatment and quality cont...

Embodiment 2

[0076] Objective interpretation is carried out on the fine grid (0.125°×0.125°) precipitation forecast products of Hainan Island on the first day reported by the ECMWF model at 00:00 (UTC) every day.

[0077] Step 1: Divide Hainan Island into 18 sub-regions according to administrative divisions;

[0078] Step 2: Obtain the fine grid (0.125°×0.125°) precipitation forecast product of Hainan Island on the first day reported by the ECMWF model every day at 00:00 (UTC) during the forecast period;

[0079] Step 3: Obtain the real-time analysis product of CMPAS China's daily precipitation rapid fusion (0.05°×0.05°); and use the inverse distance interpolation method to construct a precipitation (observation data, forecast product) sample set with the fine-grid precipitation forecast products of Hainan Island in the same period of history , and at the same time obtain (observation indicator value, forecast product) sample set through conversion;

[0080] Step 4: Carry out pretreatment...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a numerical mode rainfall forecast product release method based on a space-time local model. The method comprises the following steps: determining a region to be released, and dividing the region into a plurality of sub-regions; obtaining a numerical mode rainfall forecast product in a forecast expectation release area, and interpolating the numerical mode rainfall forecast product to a required discrete grid; constructing a sample set; sample pretreatment and quality control; optimizing time-space local model parameters for rainfall falling area forecast release; for each sub-region, using an optimized or set parameter to release a rainfall falling region forecasting result in a forecasting period, and determining a rainfall falling region; optimizing parameters of a time-space local model for precipitation level forecast release; and for each sub-region, the precipitation level forecasting result in the falling region is released by adopting optimized or set parameters. The method has the beneficial effects that the relationship between a time-space change numerical mode rainfall forecast product and a real condition is more accurately modeled by adopting the time-space local model, and the release level of the numerical mode rainfall forecast product is further improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of intelligent grid forecasting in meteorology, in particular to a numerical model precipitation forecasting product interpretation method based on a spatiotemporal local model. Background technique [0002] Precipitation is one of the most important weather and climate elements, and accurate forecasting of precipitation is one of the main contents of weather forecast and climate forecast. With the development of atmospheric science and other related disciplines, the spatial and temporal scale and timeliness of numerical models for precipitation forecasting have been continuously expanded, and the resolution and accuracy of precipitation forecasts have been continuously improved. At present, numerical model forecasting has become the basis of precipitation forecasting. [0003] However, because the numerical model can only approximate the description of the atmosphere and the atmospheric motion has chaotic characteri...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/26G01W1/10
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/06393G06Q10/06395G06Q50/26G01W1/10Y02A10/40
Inventor 张国峰刘少军韩静蔡大鑫白蕤
Owner 海南省气象科学研究所
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