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Numerical model forecast product objective release method based on space-time local model

A numerical model, space-time local technology, applied in data processing applications, forecasting, weather condition forecasting, etc., to achieve the effect of improving the level of interpretation

Pending Publication Date: 2022-01-28
海南省气象科学研究所
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] Not only the above-mentioned problems exist in the interpretation and application of numerical weather and climate model forecast products, but also the same problems exist in the interpretation and application of numerical model forecast products in marine and other aspects

Method used

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  • Numerical model forecast product objective release method based on space-time local model
  • Numerical model forecast product objective release method based on space-time local model
  • Numerical model forecast product objective release method based on space-time local model

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Experimental program
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Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0058] Objectively interpret the fine grid (0.125°×0.125°) 10m wind speed forecast product of Hainan Island for the 3rd hour from 00:00 (UTC) every day by the ECMWF model.

[0059] Step 1: Divide Hainan Island into 18 sub-regions according to administrative divisions;

[0060] Step 2: Obtain the 0.05°×0.05° China Smart Grid Fusion Analysis Product (CLDAS) of Hainan Island and the 10m fine-grid wind speed forecast product of Hainan Island for the 3rd hour reported by the historical ECMWF model at 00:00 (UTC); and Referring to the method of Zeng Xiaoqing (Zeng Xiaoqing, Xue Feng, Yao Li, Zhao Shengrong. Comparison of grid point forecast correction schemes for model wind fields [J]. Acta Applied Meteorology, 2019, 30(01): 49-60), the 10m wind speed (observation data, forecast products, error of starting time) sample set;

[0061] Step 3: Pretreatment and quality control of the samples in step 2;

[0062] Step 4: For each sub-region, the interpretation model adopts 2-variable we...

Embodiment 2

[0067] The global ensemble forecast model for the five centers of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and the UK Met Office (UKMO) at 12 o'clock every day (Universal time) The 500hPa geopotential height field control forecast product of the northeast hemisphere (0-80°N, 0-160°E) on the 3rd day of the report, for multi-model integration and objective interpretation.

[0068] Step 1: Divide the Northeast Hemisphere into different sub-regions according to the area size of 10°×10°;

[0069] Step 2: Obtain NCEP / NCAR daily 12:00500hPa geopotential height field reanalysis data, and build a sample set (observation data, forecast products) with the historical control forecast products of the global ensemble forecast model of each center.

[0070] Step 3: Pretreatment and quality control of the samples in step 2;

...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a spatial-temporal local model-based numerical mode forecast product objective release method, which comprises the following steps of: determining a to-be-released region, a numerical mode forecast product and a level of the numerical mode forecast product, and dividing the to-be-released region into a plurality of sub-regions; constructing a sample set; sample quality control; for each sub-region, selecting a corresponding release model, a weight function model, a space-time distance model, an evaluation index and a sliding training period, and optimizing or setting related parameters; obtaining a corresponding numerical mode forecasting product, and interpolating the product to a required discrete grid; and using the selected release model, the weight function model, the space-time distance model, the sliding training period and the optimized or set parameters to release the forecast product in the forecast period. The method has the beneficial effects that the relationship between the time-space change numerical mode forecasting product and the real condition is more accurately modeled by adopting the time-space local model, and the release level of the numerical mode forecasting product is further improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of interpretation of numerical model forecast products in earth sciences, in particular to an objective interpretation method of numerical model forecast products based on a spatiotemporal local model. Background technique [0002] Accurate forecasting of weather and climate elements and phenomena is the main driving force and goal of the development of meteorology. With the development of earth detection technology (such as satellite remote sensing, weather radar), synoptic science, climatology, dynamic meteorology, information and communication technology, supercomputer technology, numerical calculation technology, data assimilation technology, etc., numerical weather prediction has made great progress. With the continuous development of numerical models, the types of numerical model forecast products are constantly increasing, the time-space scale and timeliness are constantly expanding, and the resolution and accu...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/26G01W1/10
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/06393G06Q10/06395G06Q50/26G01W1/10
Inventor 张国峰杨立荣张廷龙田光辉佟金鹤
Owner 海南省气象科学研究所
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