Risk monitoring, prevention and control early warning method for retail market of electricity selling company

Abstract

The invention relates to an electricity selling company retail market risk monitoring, prevention and control early warning method, and belongs to the technical field of electricity selling settlement risk monitoring. According to the method, the historical electricity consumption data of the users of the electricity selling company is automatically obtained, the random fractal intelligent search algorithm is used for performing hyper-parameter optimization on the deep learning model, then the monthly transaction capability of the electricity selling company is predicted based on the model, and an effective reference is provided for accurate control of the retail transaction prediction capability of the electricity selling company. Meanwhile, based on the predicted retail transaction capability, a current retail electricity market wholesale price difference calculation mode is considered, an adaptive refined day-by-day transaction risk grading early warning prevention and control mode is provided, linkage with electricity consumption values is carried out, corresponding early warning levels and early warning measures are automatically matched, an early warning reference is provided for risk management of power grid enterprises, and the risk management efficiency of the power grid enterprises is improved. Operation settlement risks of power grid companies can be effectively prevented and controlled, market operation efficiency is optimized, and stable and orderly development of multiple market subjects in the retail power market is guaranteed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of electricity sales settlement risk monitoring, and in particular relates to a risk monitoring, prevention, and early warning method for an electricity sales company's retail market. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the continuous deepening of electricity market-oriented reforms, the vitality of market entities on the electricity sales side has continued to increase, providing important support for the prosperity and development of the electricity market. However, on the electricity sales side, emerging electricity sales companies are also faced with multiple uncertainties such as changes in market user demand, fluctuations in electricity prices, and unstable operating conditions, which in turn lead to market risks. At the same time, as the degree of market opening continues to increase, the settlement entities in the retail electricity market have changed. Under the current market enviro...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The present invention aims at the status quo of the settlement risk of power grid enterprises in the current retail electricity market from single-subject settlement risk to multi-subject settlement risk coupled with multiple risks. In traditional risk management, power grid enterprises have information lag, insufficient dimension of subject interest protection, and lack of effective risk control. Measures and other issues, design a retail market risk monitoring, prevention and early warning method for electricity retail companie

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