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Method for predicting shutdown probability of power grids under combined effect conditions of extreme high temperatures and forest fire

A forest fire and outage probability technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as inability to calculate line failure probability, inability to calculate conductor temperature, etc.

Active Publication Date: 2015-07-01
HARBIN INST OF TECH +4
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] The present invention solves the problem that the existing method cannot calculate the probability of line failure due to the inability to calculate the parameters such as the wire temperature under extreme weather conditions, and provides a calculation method for the probability of power grid outage under the combined action of extreme high temperature and forest fire

Method used

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  • Method for predicting shutdown probability of power grids under combined effect conditions of extreme high temperatures and forest fire
  • Method for predicting shutdown probability of power grids under combined effect conditions of extreme high temperatures and forest fire
  • Method for predicting shutdown probability of power grids under combined effect conditions of extreme high temperatures and forest fire

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specific Embodiment approach 1

[0034] Specific implementation mode one: The method for predicting the probability of power grid outage under the combined action of extreme high temperature and forest fires in this embodiment is implemented in the following steps:

[0035] 1. Calculate the probability of short-circuit failure of the wire caused by insulation breakdown P(electricbreakdown|fire);

[0036] 2. Calculate the failure probability P(HighTemp|fire)×P(fault|HighTemp) caused by the high temperature of the wire caused by the combined action of extreme high temperature and forest fire;

[0037] 3. Calculate the probability of power grid outage under the combined action of extreme high temperature and forest fire

[0038] P c =P(electricbreakdown|fire)+P(HighTemp|fire)×P(fault|HighTemp)

[0039] where P c Indicates the power grid outage probability;

[0040] P(electicbreakdown|fire) indicates the probability of wire short-circuit failure caused by insulation breakdown;

[0041] P(HighTemp|fire) repre...

specific Embodiment approach 2

[0058] Embodiment 2: The difference between this embodiment and Embodiment 1 is that in the step 1, the probability of short-circuit failure caused by insulation breakdown is calculated as follows:

[0059] Power frequency breakdown voltage U of air gaps under forest fire conditions 1 for

[0060] U 1 =K t K p U 0

[0061] K p is the smoke concentration correction factor, and the power frequency breakdown voltage of the air gap is U 0 , the atmospheric correction factor K t , K t =K d K h , where K d is the air density correction factor, K h is the air humidity correction factor;

[0062] The short-circuit failure probability caused by edge breakdown during forest fire is expressed as

[0063] P ( U ) = 1 0.04 2 π U 50 e ...

specific Embodiment approach 3

[0066] Embodiment 3: This embodiment is different from Embodiment 1 or 2 in that: in the second step, P(HighTemp|fire) is monitored by using modern remote sensing technology, and P(HighTemp|fire) is taken when the forest fire passes through the transmission line. 1, otherwise 0.

[0067] Other steps and parameters are the same as in the first or second embodiment.

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting the shutdown probability of power grids under combined effect conditions of extreme high temperatures and forest fire, and relates to methods for predicting the shutdown probability of power grids. The method includes firstly, computing short-circuit breakdown probability P(eleticbreakdown fire) of wires due to insulation breakdown; secondly, computing breakdown probability P(HighTemp fire)*P(fault HighTemp) due to high temperatures of the wires under the combined effect conditions of the extreme high temperatures and the forest fire; thirdly, computing the shutdown probability of the power grids under the combined effect conditions of the extreme high temperatures and the forest fire. The method has the advantages that the problem of incapability of computing the breakdown probability of lines due to the fact that parameters such as temperatures of wires cannot be computed under extreme weather conditions by existing methods can be solved, and the method can be used for computing the shutdown probability of the power grids under the combined effect conditions of the extreme high temperatures and the forest fire; the method is applied to the field of power systems.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting the outage probability of a power grid. Background technique [0002] 1. The current research only stays in the calculation and solution of the heat balance equation of the transmission line under normal conditions, but the above method is no longer applicable under the conditions of natural disasters. A new method is needed to calculate parameters such as conductor temperature under extreme weather conditions, and then calculate the probability of line failure. [0003] 2. At present, there are only statistical values ​​of the failure probability of the power grid for the whole year, and there is no calculation method for the probability of power grid outage under the combined action of extreme high temperature (>30°C) and forest fires. The outage probability estimation is very necessary for the early warning of natural disasters in the power grid, and it can focus on preventing lines that are prone...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCY02A40/28
Inventor 郭钰锋石建国于继来
Owner HARBIN INST OF TECH
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