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Modeling method of crowd panic propagation under disaster conditions based on kinematic ball model
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A modeling method and kinematics technology, applied in the field of crowd panic propagation modeling, can solve the problems of less microscopic analysis, no operability analysis method, lack of time-varying panic propagation model, etc.
Active Publication Date: 2019-03-01
TONGJI UNIV
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However, due to the complexity, time-varying and non-reproducibility of panic psychology, and the evolution of crowd evacuation is a nonlinear, unstructured and self-organized complex process, especially for the overcrowding and Therefore, it is impossible to establish an accurate mathematical model, which makes it difficult to use the classical Lyapunov function to analyze its instability process and evolution mechanism
[0003] Domestic research on panic communication has entered the initial stage, but there are deficiencies: (1) There are few micro-analysis, and most of the existing models study the problem of panic communication from a macro perspective
(2) The classic panic propagation model lacks time-varying, and has not yet formed a highly operable analysis method
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Embodiment 1
[0065] This embodiment provides a one-dimensional panic propagation model, and the specific modeling process is as follows.
[0066] Disasters are the triggering conditions for the spread of panic among crowds. The disaster factors are mapped to the panic propagation model, and the disaster factors affect the speed of evacuating individuals. Define the rule θ as:
[0067]
[0068] where μ DA is the membership function of the disaster loss degree DA, DA max is the maximum disaster loss degree, For Risk Assessment Intensity I 0 The membership function of , I max is the maximum risk assessment strength, the subscript t is h dis , s is the serial number of i value, and i is the risk assessment intensity I 0 The coordinate value on, n is the maximum value of i, r st is an element in the fuzzy relationship matrix.
[0069] Using the inference formula:
[0070] DA=I 0 θR (2)
[0071] Risk Assessment Strength I 0 Distributed to the control points by the method of i...
Embodiment 2
[0099] This embodiment provides a two-dimensional panic propagation model, and the specific modeling process is as follows.
[0100] On the basis of the one-dimensional panic propagation model in Example 1, the one-dimensional model is extended to establish a two-dimensional panic propagation model. The two-dimensional propagation model considers the entire plane, which is more convincing and reliable.
[0101] (1) Under normal circumstances (such as image 3 )
[0102] The normal situation refers to the natural movement state of the crowd without disasters. The distance between the evacuated individuals is randomly distributed, and there are social forces (self-propelled and other-propelled) among the evacuated individuals. The classic social force model is established. This method transforms the social force model into momentum to analyze the spread of panic.
[0103]
[0104] in is the total momentum before the collision, is the total momentum after the collision. ...
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Abstract
The invention relates to a crowd panic spreading modeling method under disaster conditions on the basis of a kinematics ball model. The method comprises the following steps: 1) mapping evacuation individuals in a crowd into balls, and obtaining the mass of each evacuation individual and a distance between every two evacuation individuals before panic spreading according to the individual key features of the evacuation individuals; 2) importing a disaster risk index which triggers the panic spreading, and calculating the speed of each evacuation individual after the panic spreading is carried out; 3) according to a "mentality-behavior" fluctuation model, obtaining the diameter variable quantity of each evacuation individual under a panic situation so as to obtain the quality variable quantity of each evacuation individual; and 4) according to the steps 1) to 3), establishing a crowd panic spreading model which is expressed by the change of momentum, and showing a panic degree through the change quantity of momentum. Compared with the prior art, the crowd panic spreading modeling method has the advantages that the method is simple and feasible, and the influence of the panic spreading on crowd evacuation can be systemically analyzed and the like.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to a crowd panic propagation modeling method, in particular to a crowd panic propagation modeling method under disaster conditions based on a kinematic ball model. Background technique [0002] Disaster conditions will be accompanied by panic. Panic is not only the cause of stampede, but also an important reason for the expansion of accident consequences. In recent years, scholars have paid more and more attention to the multidisciplinary research results of social science, management science, information science and system science, and deeply studied the formation and spread of panic during the evacuation process, and its effect on the stability of crowd evacuation. The simulation results are closer to the real situation to effectively prevent various stampede events. However, due to the complexity, time-varying and non-reproducibility of panic psychology, and the evolution of crowd evacuation is a nonlinear, unstructured and se...
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