Structuring method of self-adaptive drainage basin medium-long-term runoff forecasting model

Abstract

The invention relates to a structuring method of a self-adaptive drainage basin medium-long-term runoff forecasting model. The structuring method includes steps of classifying a forecasting runoff tobe different sub-streams according to the forecasted drainage basin feature to forecast in different basins; building forecasting factor sets of different sub-streams; applying a gathered forecastingmethod to every sub-stream; adjusting different model parameters in the forecasting method by the self-adaptive method; applying a riverway calculation method to the forecasting result of the sub-stream to obtain the final drainage basin forecasting value; periodically testing the certainty coefficient of the forecasting result to judge if the forecasting factor and the formation of the forecasting method are required to update. The runoff forecasting result acquired through the method can provide a reliable basis for the forecasting of urban flood prevention or inflow of large reservoirs.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a runoff forecasting framework method, in particular to an adaptive medium and long-term runoff forecasting model framework method. Background technique [0002] Runoff forecasting belongs to the category of hydrological forecasting and is an important part of applied hydrology. It is an applied science and technology based on mastering objective hydrological laws and predicting future runoff changes. prerequisite for implementation. Runoff forecasting can be divided into short-term runoff forecast and medium- and long-term runoff forecast according to the forecast period. Generally, it is bounded by the confluence time of the basin. Any forecast period that is less than or equal to the confluence time of the basin is called a short-term forecast. The forecast period is greater than the confluence time of the basin. is called medium and long-term forecast. Among them, the forecast period is within one day as mid-range forecas...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0006] The present invention designs an adaptive medium- and long-term runoff forecasting model framework method, which solves the technical problem that the current forecasting system urgently needs to be improved in terms of coverage and forecasting factors, and there is no mid-term forecast and long-term forecast in the forecasting process. Different methods are constructed according to the differences of the watershed, and different forecast models are not established according to the characteristics of different sub-basins of the watershed. At the same time, the forecast model itself lacks self-evaluation and modification capabilities, and cannot update the model blocks in time.

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