Incoming water uncertainty-considered method for estimating monthly optimal traded power of hydropower stations

Abstract

The invention relates to an incoming water uncertainty-considered method for estimating monthly optimal traded power of hydropower stations and belongs to the technical field of power market trading of the hydropower stations. The method comprises the steps of firstly carrying out statistical analysis on historical predicted values and actual values of monthly runoffs of a reservoir in the same time period and obtaining probabilities corresponding to flow intervals of the different levels of inflow runoffs in the month according to predicted value results of the runoffs in the current month; calculating the average power which can be generated by a hydropower station and the probability according to the current initial water level and the planned water level at the end of the month, of thehydropower station and the probabilities corresponding to the flow intervals of the different levels of inflow runoffs; and by considering the predicted traded power price and default loss price of the month and taking the maximum expected revenue of the hydropower station as the target, establishing a monthly traded power optimizing model and solving to obtain an estimated value of the monthly optimal traded power. The method has the advantages that the expected revenue of the hydropower station can be increased under the circumstance of considering the uncertainty of reservoir inflow; and areference can be provided for the hydropower station to participate in the monthly power trading.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of hydropower market-based trading, and in particular relates to a method for estimating the monthly optimal trading power of a hydropower station considering the uncertainty of incoming water. Background technique [0002] Most of the current research results on the participation of hydropower stations in electricity market transactions regard the inflow of reservoirs as a known quantity, focus on the study of electricity prices in stages and time periods, establish a model for maximizing power generation benefits, and optimize the operation mode of hydropower stations. However, limited by the level of runoff forecasting, especially the medium- and long-term runoff forecasting, it is difficult to popularize and apply such research results in actual projects. Some studies that consider the randomness of water inflow from hydropower stations have not been combined with the general environment of electricity ma...

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Problems solved by technology

However, limited by the level of runoff forecasting, especially the medium- and long-term runoff forecasting, it is difficult to popularize and apply such research results in actual projects. Some studies that consider the randomness of water inflow from hydropower stations have not been combined with the general environment of electricity market transactions. Optimizing from the perspective of hydropower station's own power generation

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