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Social economic analysis and prediction method

A technology of social economy and forecasting method, applied in the field of economics, can solve the problems of single influencing factors and low accuracy rate, and achieve the effect of comprehensive data acquisition, improvement of accuracy rate, and improvement of forecast accuracy rate

Pending Publication Date: 2019-09-13
HARBIN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a socio-economic analysis and forecasting method to solve the problem of low accuracy of traditional economics forecasting methods and single influencing factors considered

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  • Social economic analysis and prediction method

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Embodiment Construction

[0050] Preferred embodiments of the present invention are described in detail below.

[0051] A kind of socioeconomic analysis forecasting method described in the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0052] Step a, obtaining socioeconomic data, which includes macroeconomic data and microeconomic data; macroeconomic data includes GDP, social population, inflation, deflation, total retail sales of social consumer goods, balance of savings deposits of urban and rural residents, and financial Indicators; microeconomic data include regional GDP, investment and construction operating costs and benefits in the region, economic data related to merchants and residents in the region, employment positions and actual employment index, personal economic data and consumption bias;

[0053] Step b, spatial discretization of macroeconomic data and microeconomic data; construct regression model and spatial distribution model between macroeconomic data, microeconomic data and soci...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a social economy analysis and prediction method, belongs to the technical field of economics, and aims to solve the problems that a traditional economics prediction method is low in accuracy and single in the considered influence factor. The social economy analysis and prediction method comprises the steps: a, obtaining social economic data; b, performing spatial discretization on the macroeconomic data and the microeconomic data; c, determining an influence relationship between the macro-economic data and the micro-economic data on the social economy; d, comparing, auditing and analyzing reasons causing difference by combining the analysis results of the step b and the step c; and e, analyzing the economic fluctuation data finally obtained in the step d and the regional social and economic index distribution condition, simulating the future development trend of the social economy, obtaining a future social and economic development optimization scheme, and completing social and economic analysis and prediction. According to the social economic analysis and prediction method, the relative magnitude of the importance of all influence factors in a certain period can be relatively and accurately judged, and the prediction accuracy is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an analysis and prediction method, in particular to a socioeconomic analysis and prediction method, belonging to the technical field of economics. Background technique [0002] Economics is a theory that studies the law of human economic activities, that is, the law of value creation, transformation, and realization—the law of economic development. It is divided into two types: political economics and scientific economics. [0003] In order to study the laws of economic development, it is necessary to study economic phenomena as a whole. Macroeconomics and microeconomics are two symmetrical aspects of a unified economy. Therefore, in the framework of scientific symmetrical economic paradigms, there are macroeconomics and microeconomics. points. [0004] The accuracy of traditional economic forecasting and analysis methods is not satisfactory. Studies abroad have shown that the accuracy of economists' economic forecasts is onl...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q40/06G06Q50/26G06F17/18
CPCG06F17/18G06Q10/04G06Q40/06G06Q50/26
Inventor 魏巍
Owner HARBIN UNIV
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