Rail transit system risk chain group construction method based on infectious disease model
A rail transit and construction method technology, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve the problem of high possibility of risk propagation in rail transit systems
Active Publication Date: 2019-11-01
BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIV
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[0003] Therefore, there is an urgent need for a method for constructing risk chain groups that can solve the problem of risk propagation in rail transit systems that may cause serious risk consequences.
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[0041] Embodiments of the present invention are described in detail below, examples of which are shown in the drawings, wherein the same or similar reference numerals denote the same or similar elements or elements having the same or similar functions throughout. The embodiments described below by referring to the figures are exemplary only for explaining the present invention and should not be construed as limiting the present invention.
[0042] Those skilled in the art will understand that unless otherwise stated, the singular forms "a", "an", "said" and "the" used herein may also include plural forms. It should be further understood that the word "comprising" used in the description of the present invention refers to the presence of said features, integers, steps, operations, elements and / or components, but does not exclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, Integers, steps, operations, elements, components, and / or groups thereof. It will be understoo...
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The invention provides a rail transit system risk chain group construction method based on an infectious disease model. The method comprises the steps: determining risk points in a rail transit system, and forming a risk network through edge connection according to the action relation of the risk points; calculating initial risk point migration measure of the risk points and coupling measure between the risk points, and calculating the heterogeneous risk propagation comprehensive probability according to the initial average infection rate of the risk points; on the basis of a traditional infectious disease model, combining the risk point state migration measure, the risk point coupling measure and the heterogeneous risk propagation probability to construct a rail transit system risk propagation evolution kinetic model, and according to the rail transit system risk propagation evolution kinetic model, utilizing an asynchronous updating method to construct a risk chain group of the railtransit system. The risk chain group obtained by the method can reflect the law of propagation and evolution of risks in a rail transit system, and can provide theoretical support for rail transit operation management.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of rail transit system risk control and safety analysis, in particular to a method for constructing a rail transit system risk chain group based on an infectious disease model. Background technique [0002] With the expansion of rail transit network operation scale, the difficulty of safety management of rail transit system is increasing. As a complex system, the safety state of the urban rail system conforms to the system theory that "the change of the system state and system behavior mainly depends on the change of the correlation relationship in the system structure". Therefore, combined with the characteristics of rail transit system operation safety management, attention The dynamic process of risk propagation along the relevant relationship paths in rail transit, and this group of propagation paths is called the risk chain group, and then the risk chain groups that have a high possibility of risk propa...
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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/30G06F17/50
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q50/40
Inventor 王艳辉贾利民崔逸如郝伯炎赵晨阳
Owner BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIV