Service industry drought loss prediction and evaluation method

Abstract

The invention discloses a service industry drought loss evaluation method. The method comprises: establishing a service industry water demand prediction model; calibrating parameters of the service industry water demand prediction model; obtaining the water demand and water shortage rate of the service industry; calculating to obtain the water demand and water shortage rate of the service industry; and calculating to obtain a service industry loss evaluation value. By adopting the method, the drought loss can be efficiently and comprehensively predicted and evaluated in real time, urgent needinformation is provided for scientific disaster reduction and relief, and meanwhile important scientific basis is provided for decisions of weather, water conservancy, agriculture, environmental protection and civil government departments.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of disaster loss forecasting, in particular to a method for forecasting and assessing drought losses in the service industry. Background technique [0002] With the abnormal global climate change, drought events are more frequent, causing serious losses to society, economy and ecology. Regional droughts often cause global impacts, and drought has become the most widespread natural disaster in the world. Drought has caused serious impact on social economy and ecology, which has attracted widespread attention from all over the world. At present, the assessment and prediction of drought losses at home and abroad mainly focus on agriculture, including planting and animal husbandry, and there are few studies on drought losses in other areas, such as urban domestic water use, tourism and industry. The data are mainly obtained in the form of field surveys, expert interviews and statistical data; the evaluation an...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] However, the inventors have found through research that there is a lack of systematic quantitative research on the losses caused by drought to socio-economic ecology

There are many assessments and forecasts of drought losses and most of them focus on agriculture, and there are few researches on drought losses in other aspects; the assessment and prediction methods mainly use the combination of qualitative and quantitative evaluation, and the quantitative evaluation models are mostly statistical models, which are affected by regional and human factors. Influence, poor universality, unable to evaluate efficiently and objectively in real time

The drought loss prediction method in the existing technology only targets a certain aspect of the region, the model is not universally applicable, and lacks a complete set of loss assessment and prediction methods

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