Progressively-adjusted load prediction method for directly-heated electric boiler in residential area in northeast China

A technology for load forecasting and residential areas, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as difficult scientific management basis, aging, increase in occupancy, aging of insulation materials, inaccurate regression models, etc., to achieve accurate load predicted effect

Active Publication Date: 2020-02-14
CHANGCHUN INST OF TECH +1
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  • Abstract
  • Description
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  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] To predict the load of direct-heating electric boilers, the technical means commonly used in the industry include: 1. Directly use the load situation in the same period of previous years as the current forecast result. Such methods can only "guess" the approximate magnitude of the load However, it is impossible to predict the accurate value, and it is difficult to serve as the basis for scientific management
Second, use neural network, decision tree and other models to learn historical data to obtain a regression model from outdoor temperature to load, and then use the regression mode

Method used

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  • Progressively-adjusted load prediction method for directly-heated electric boiler in residential area in northeast China
  • Progressively-adjusted load prediction method for directly-heated electric boiler in residential area in northeast China
  • Progressively-adjusted load prediction method for directly-heated electric boiler in residential area in northeast China

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0056] S1. According to the 2016 annual data of a direct-heating electric boiler imported from an enterprise in Changchun; the number of days of the specified heating period is M=180, and the historical load data History of the direct-heating electric boiler is entered. The data is an M-dimensional array:

[0057] 32.4 46.4 36.1 41.5 41.7 41.6 38.3 48.5 50.8 48.7 … 11.1

[0058] Enter the historical daily average temperature Temperature, which is an M-dimensional array:

[0059] 13.4 11.5 13.4 13.5 12.4 13.3 11.9 10.5 9.5 10.9 … 14.6

[0060] Enter the water outlet temperature setting value POT of the boiler, which is an M-dimensional array:

[0061] 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 … 50

[0062] And the water inlet temperature setting value PIT, the data is an M-dimensional array:

[0063] 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 … 20

[0064] Obtain the lowest value of History LH=2.4, the h...

experiment example 2

[0077] Introduce 5 direct-heating electric boilers in the northern region, compare this patented method with the prediction methods of support vector machine, neural network, and decision tree under the same environment, and use the average absolute percentage error to measure the prediction error:

[0078]

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Abstract

The invention relates to a progressively-adjusted load prediction method for a directly-heated electric boiler in a residential area in northeast China, and provides a new load prediction method for apower system, so that historical experience can be summarized, and progressive adjustment can be carried out according to a current data value, and accurate load prediction is realized. Through the progressively-adjusted load prediction method, the load of the directly-heated electric boiler in the residential area in the northeast China can be accurately predicted, and the progressively-adjustedload prediction method plays an important role in power grid safety management, wind power peak regulation and power grid scientific management.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a progressively adjusted load forecasting method for direct-heating electric boilers in residential areas in Northeast China, provides a new load forecasting method for electric power systems, and belongs to the technical field of electric boiler load management. Background technique [0002] The direct heating electric boiler is a widely used heating technology in residential areas in Northeast my country, and heating accounts for a large proportion of electricity consumption in winter; therefore, accurate prediction of the direct heating electric boiler load can be used to plan the power grid in advance. It plays a very important role in power grid security management, wind power peak regulation, and power grid scientific management. [0003] To predict the load of direct-heating electric boilers, the technical means commonly used in the industry include: 1. Directly use the load situation in the same period of previous years ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F17/10
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F17/10Y04S10/50
Inventor 孙宏斌毕正军潘欣
Owner CHANGCHUN INST OF TECH
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