Method and device for predicting telecom traffic

A forecasting method and business volume technology, applied in the field of telecommunication network, to achieve the effect of accurate forecasting accuracy and simple and easy-to-use forecasting scheme

Active Publication Date: 2011-06-29
BEIJING BOCO COMM TECH
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, for telecommunication networks with relatively large business changes and signifi

Method used

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  • Method and device for predicting telecom traffic
  • Method and device for predicting telecom traffic
  • Method and device for predicting telecom traffic

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

example 1

[0056] Method Example 1: Traffic Prediction

[0057] In the following, taking the voice service of province A during the "May 1st" labor day in 2009 as an example, the method for predicting the telecommunication traffic volume of the present invention and its effect will be described in detail. Specifically include the following steps:

[0058] Step 1: Select the traffic generated in the mobile switching center in province A from April 30, 2009 to May 3, 2009 as the prediction granularity.

[0059] Step 2: Select the daily traffic generated in the mobile switching center in province A from April 1, 2009 to April 23, 2009 as a forecast sample, as shown in Table 1:

[0060] date

Traffic

date

Traffic

date

Traffic

April 1

465496.6495

April 9

467208.2000

April 17

486043.2632

April 2

462500.8755

April 10

473943.7504

April 18

427970.0125

April 3

471012.9628

April 11

427970....

example 2

[0090] Method Example 2: SMS Volume Prediction

[0091] In order to further illustrate the effect of the embodiment of the method of the present invention, the forecast of the number of short messages in Province A from April 30, 2009 to May 3, 2009 is taken as an example to illustrate. The calculation steps are the same as the previous examples, and only the relevant data are listed here for illustration.

[0092] 1. About historical samples and forecast samples

[0093] Table 8 shows the data list of the number of text messages from April 1, 2008 to April 23, 2008 and April 1, 2009 to April 23, 2009, unit: million:

[0094] date

Year 2008

Year 2009

date

Year 2008

Year 2009

April 1

204.43

239.86

April 13

166.94

231.21

April 2

174.54

228.72

April 14

174.65

230.88

April 3

186.04

232.84

April 15

177.21

225.07

April 4

181.18

228.32

April ...

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Abstract

The invention provides a method and device for predicting telecom traffic. The method comprises the following steps: determining the prediction granulation of the telecom traffic; selecting a historical sample and a prediction sample; respectively calculating the growth rates and the initial values of the telecom traffics of the historical sample and the prediction sample by using a unary linear regression model; calculating the prediction traffics of the historical sample and the prediction sample; reading the actual traffic of the historical sample; and adjusting the second prediction traffic according to the deviation between the traffic of first prediction and the actual traffic to obtain the prediction traffic adjusted by a user. The behavior mode of the user is obtained through analyzing the deviation between the linear prediction value and the actual value in the historical sample, and accordingly, the linear prediction value of future telecom traffic data is adjusted to obtainmore accurate telecom network traffic, thereby providing decision support for the user to plan, organize and manage network more accurately.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of telecommunication networks, in particular to a method and device for predicting telecommunication traffic. Background technique [0002] Telecom business volume refers to the amount of telecommunication information that needs to be transmitted. It is the main basis for accounting for various network element equipment, production personnel, and organizational production, such as traffic volume, MMS volume, and SMS volume. Telecommunications business is characterized by relatively large changes in business volume, uneven busy and idle time, and is significantly affected by holidays. [0003] Telecom business volume forecasting is to obtain the law and characteristics of the traffic volume change of the telecommunications system from the relevant historical records, establish a mathematical model that can describe the changing characteristics of the telecommunications traffic volume, and then use the mathema...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): H04L12/24
Inventor 章建功潘阳发满毅张海军陈晓峰
Owner BEIJING BOCO COMM TECH
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