Power distribution network flow prediction method based on B-spline substrate developed curve clustering

A technology of unfolding curves and forecasting methods, applied in forecasting, instruments, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as inaccurate prediction of line loss rate, low accuracy rate, impact on power grid line loss management analysis and transformation, and solve nonlinear problems Forecasting, effects in favor of accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2015-07-01
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a distribution network power flow prediction method based on B-spline base expansion curve clustering, aiming at solving the problem that most of the current theoretical line loss predictions are directly predicted by generator processing, etc. Low, resulting in inaccurate prediction of line loss rate, directly affecting the accuracy of power grid dispatching, affecting the analysis and transformation of power grid line loss management

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  • Power distribution network flow prediction method based on B-spline substrate developed curve clustering
  • Power distribution network flow prediction method based on B-spline substrate developed curve clustering
  • Power distribution network flow prediction method based on B-spline substrate developed curve clustering

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[0016] In order to make the object, technical solution and advantages of the present invention more clear, the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the examples. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described here are only used to explain the present invention, not to limit the present invention.

[0017] The application principle of the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0018] A kind of curve clustering method power flow prediction method based on B-spline base expansion of the present invention (see figure 1 ), including extracting the daily load curve, clustering each type of load curve, predicting the load curve and performing power flow calculation and estimating the probability of power flow occurrence;

[0019] The extraction of the daily load curve is to extract the total daily active and reactive load curves under each ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a power distribution network flow prediction method based on B-spline substrate developed curve clustering. The method is characterized in that the clustering technology is used to predict a load, and line loss rate and line loss probability are predicted by flow calculation. By the method based on the B-spline substrate developed curve clustering, curve clustering is discussed under the condition that curve change rate is considered, and comprehensive extraction of function features is benefited. The method has the advantages that nonlinear prediction difficulties during direct line loss rate prediction are solved; curve all-order derivative functions are brought into a curve clustering algorithm, comprehensive extraction of function features is benefited, and clustering accuracy is benefited when load fluctuation is large; the line loss rate is calculated by load prediction, the theoretic basis of line loss prediction is provided, and non-linear prediction difficulties are avoided; a flow occurrence probability concept is introduced, and assistance is provided to power grid economic operation condition measuring, power grid structure and layout reasonability evaluation, reasonable dispatching order giving, and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of electric network theoretical line loss prediction, and in particular relates to a distribution network power flow prediction method based on B-spline base expansion curve clustering. Background technique [0002] Power network loss is the power loss generated during the transmission of electric energy, and the line loss rate is an important technical and economic index of electric power enterprises, and it is also an important symbol to measure the technical level and management level of electric power enterprises. Reducing line loss is an important task for power grids and power supply companies, and it is also an important means to improve corporate profits, save energy and reduce emissions. According to the national policy of "emphasizing both resource evaluation and conservation, and putting conservation first", power companies have invested a lot of manpower, finance and material resources in order t...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCY04S10/50
Inventor 王峥刘创华于光耀姜春光李国栋刘云
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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