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Integrated energy predicting method

A forecasting method and comprehensive energy technology, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, character and pattern recognition, etc.

Active Publication Date: 2015-07-29
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +1
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The purpose is to solve the problem of the accuracy of energy consumption forecasting by establishing a set of reasonable and accurate forecasting theory system and forecasting system

Method used

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Embodiment Construction

[0086] The implementation mode specifically includes the following steps:

[0087] Step 1. Select the historical data of regional factors and the measured value of energy consumption demand by year as data samples.

[0088] First of all, in this embodiment, the year to predict the energy consumption demand is determined as 2013, and the user can choose the year to be predicted according to the needs.

[0089]Then, select the historical data of the regional factors in each of the six years before 2013 and the measured values ​​of energy consumption demand corresponding to the year and the region. The historical data of the regional factors include the following 10 items of data: total population, No. The gross value of the secondary industry, the gross national product, the consumption level of residents, the average price of electricity, the actual output of primary energy for electricity, the proportion of electricity consumption, the elastic coefficient of energy production,...

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Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of energy consumption, in particular to an integrated energy predicting method, namely a consumed energy predicting method. The method includes selecting regional factor historical data and energy consumption requirement actual value as data samples according to particular years; combining with the acquired data, excavating relationships of different years and types, and searching for sample weights of regional factor samples corresponding to an energy consumption requirement actual value so as to determine the affecting level of regional factors of different years on energy consumption requirements; adopting the prediction algorithm based on linear mapping to predict a total annual consumption requirement value of one region of one year. The relationships of factors and prediction results can be represented objectively, the efficiency of the algorithm is improved, the energy consumption predicting process is more effective and rapid, the energy prediction accuracy can be improved on the economic development fresh normalcy and energy environment strong constraint conditions, the regional energy balance is calculated, and the reasonable and feasible energy development and safety guarantee policy can be determined finally.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of energy consumption forecasting, in particular to a comprehensive energy forecasting method, in particular to an energy consumption forecasting method. Background technique [0002] At present, my country is in the new normal development stage of economic development, and the main economic indicators mainly based on GDP show a relatively stable low growth trend. Affected by multiple factors such as continuous fluctuations in energy prices and production restrictions in high-energy-consuming industries, energy development is facing a new development environment. Therefore, the forecast of total energy consumption has become one of the important links in energy development planning. [0003] Existing technologies mostly use prediction methods based on learning and training to predict the total energy demand in a certain area. However, the methods currently used generally have the problem of inaccurate predic...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06K9/62
Inventor 宋卓然张子信张明理宋颖巍刘岩梁毅潘霄张晓天赵琳蒋理侯玉琤刘凯杨方圆周沫
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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