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Power grid project implementation phase risk early warning method based on extreme value theory

A technology of implementation stage and extreme value theory, applied in the direction of electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as lack of complete and mature methods

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-04-20
NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING) +2
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  • Abstract
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  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

At present, my country does not have a complete and mature method for early warning and control of investment risks in the implementation stage of power grid projects

Method used

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  • Power grid project implementation phase risk early warning method based on extreme value theory
  • Power grid project implementation phase risk early warning method based on extreme value theory
  • Power grid project implementation phase risk early warning method based on extreme value theory

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Embodiment Construction

[0033] The present invention proposes a risk early warning method in the implementation stage of a power grid project based on extreme value theory, and the present invention will be described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. Such as figure 1 The specific steps of the early warning method shown are as follows:

[0034] The first step: according to the fund use plan and actual investment plan in the implementation stage of the power grid project, establish a set of investment monitoring points, as shown in Table 1-1 and Table 1-2.

[0035] Table 1-1 Substation Project-Investment Monitoring Points of General Contracting Part

[0036]

[0037]

[0038] Table 1-2 Power transmission line project-list of investment monitoring points for the general contracting part

[0039]

[0040]

[0041] The second step: data processing.

[0042] In the actual settlement process of the project, with the continuous progress of the construction pe...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a power grid project implementation phase risk early warning method based on the extreme value theory, and belongs to the technical field of power grid construction project management and control. Under the condition that the progress and the quality standard are met, the whole life cycle of the power grid project is divided into different phases, aiming at the fund utilizing plan and the actual investment plan in the power grid project implementation phase, an investment monitoring point set is established; by means of an exponential regression model, the optimal threshold is directly estimated in an asymptotic representation manner; by means of the extreme value theory method, dynamic tracking, calculating and deviation early warning are carried out to the investment of the power grid project implementation phase, and the aim of monitoring the investment risk is achieved. Aiming at the characteristic and the fund investment mode and the like of the power grid project implementation phase, fund monitoring points are selected, early warning and management and control can be carried out to the fund utilizing risk in real time, and the early warning and management and control of the current power grid project investment risk are achieved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power grid construction project management and control. In particular, it relates to a risk early warning method based on extreme value theory in the implementation stage of power grid projects. Specifically, it is aimed at the investment supervision and control requirements in the implementation stage of power grid projects, and adopts the method of extreme value theory to dynamically track and measure the investment in the implementation stage of power grid projects. , deviation early warning, to achieve the purpose of investment risk monitoring. Background technique [0002] The important content and key link in engineering project management is to control the investment of the construction project to the approved estimated limit range under the condition of meeting the progress and quality standards, and to correct the deviation in time, so as to effectively ensure the good investment of the engineeri...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
CPCG16Z99/00
Inventor 雷雨乌云娜修策张如玉林剑锋张鸥刘敦楠夏静波任兆龙张平宁辽逸刘晓光刘靖波李革刘金源李建华杨晓东于兴成刘冰吴学峰潘进王镝张爽莹鞠颂徐强胜李帅肖雪陈开风胡一奇范亮许浒张金颖肖鑫利孙肖坤李敏
Owner NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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