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Region saturation load prediction method based on model family decomposition and integration technology

A forecasting method and load forecasting technology, applied in forecasting, information technology support systems, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as large differences in forecasting results, troubles for power researchers and enterprise decision makers, etc.

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-06-15
STATE GRID ZHEJIANG ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY ECONOMIC TECHN INST +2
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  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] Among the existing load forecasting technologies, single methods such as trend extrapolation, gray forecasting, and linear regression are the main methods. The prediction results of each method are quite different, which brings troubles to power researchers and enterprise decision makers.

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  • Region saturation load prediction method based on model family decomposition and integration technology
  • Region saturation load prediction method based on model family decomposition and integration technology
  • Region saturation load prediction method based on model family decomposition and integration technology

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Embodiment Construction

[0094] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0095] Taking the saturated load forecasting in Zhejiang Province as an example,

[0096] S1. Extract the main influencing factors of load growth in Zhejiang Province.

[0097] Use SPSS software to analyze the power consumption of the whole society in Zhejiang, the annual maximum load, regional GDP, population factors, investment in fixed assets of the whole society, total import and export, residential consumption, energy consumption structure, per capita power consumption and power consumption of various industries Correlation indicators, the following conclusions are obtained, except that there is no correlation between the maximum load utilization hours and each indicator, and all other indicators are significantly correlated. It can be seen that each index can reflect the changing trend of electricity consumption in different aspects and ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a region saturation load prediction method based on a model family decomposition and integration technology. In the existing load prediction technology, single prediction methods are used, such as trend extrapolation, grey prediction and linear regression; and the prediction results for each prediction method are different greatly. The region saturation load prediction method includes the steps: extracting the main influence factors for region load growth; selecting a suitable single prediction method or model to predict region saturation load; and finally determining the weight of each single prediction method or model so as to perform combined prediction of the region saturation load scale. The region saturation load prediction method based on a model family decomposition and integration technology integrates with the advantages of each single saturation load prediction method, can perform optimized combination and comprehensive analysis, can comprehensively consider the influence of the indexes which are closely related with power consumption, integrates with the saturation load determination index set to predict the saturation scale and the saturation year of the region electric power consumption quantity, and is conductive to assisting long term of power grid planning in the region.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power load forecasting, in particular to a regional saturated load forecasting method based on model family decomposition and integration technology. Background technique [0002] According to the experience of developed countries, the growth of electricity demand in a region is consistent with its economic development stage. After the economic development reaches its peak, the growth rate of its electricity consumption will slow down, or even show negative growth, showing the characteristics of a saturated growth stage. In 2015, China's economy entered a new normal, and the economic growth rate was adjusted from high-speed growth to medium-to-high speed growth. The three industrial structure optimization effects were remarkable, and its power demand was also undergoing significant changes. China's regional economic development is extremely unbalanced. The economic development of the eastern coastal area...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y04S10/50
Inventor 吴臻兰洲王峰戴攀沈志恒蔡张花李黎范娟娟张婕孙飞飞
Owner STATE GRID ZHEJIANG ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY ECONOMIC TECHN INST
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