Mountain torrent disaster critical rainfall probability analysis method

Abstract

The invention discloses a mountain torrent disaster critical rainfall probability analysis method. The method comprises the following steps: extracting no disaster-caused rainstorm information and solving an upper limit curve and a lower limit curve of critical rainfall; constructing a nonlinear model of critical rainfall-pro-phase rainfall, and comparing the nonlinear model with a linear relation model which is established on the basis of classical discriminant analysis, so as to illustrate the superiority of the new method; and fitting a probability distribution model of the critical rainfall by utilizing logarithmic normal distribution, approximatively taking a taking value interval formed by the upper limit curve and the lower limit curve as a 3(Sigma) confidence interval of the critical rainfall, carrying out inquiry to obtain distribution parameters of the critical rainfall, and carrying out inquiry to obtain mountain torrent disaster critical rainfalls under different probability conditions. Compared with the critical rainfall analytical calculation method recommended by the national mountain torrent disaster control program, the critical rainfall probability analysis method disclosed in the invention has feasibility and reliability.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a critical rainfall probability analysis method, in particular to a critical rainfall probability analysis method for mountain torrent disasters, belonging to the technical field of mountain torrent disaster early warning. Background technique [0002] Generally speaking, the influencing factors of critical rainfall in mountain torrent disasters are mainly divided into rainfall factors, geological and geomorphic conditions, and human socioeconomic activities. [0003] The rainfall factor is the direct factor and excitation condition that induces the mountain torrent disaster. The occurrence of river floods and the induced debris flow and landslide disasters are closely related to rainfall factors. [0004] According to the characteristics of rainfall distribution in my country and the survey data of mountain torrent disasters, the spatial distribution of rainfall in the continental range is almost completely consistent with th...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0006] The critical rainfall analysis method in the existing technology does not pay enough attention to the previous rainfall, does not make full use of the information of the non-disaster rainfall series, and does not eliminate the outliers in the disaster-caused rainfall series, so the accuracy of the critical rainfall calculation value is often not enough. Have to rely too much on the personal experience of professionals; at the same time, the critical rainfall of flash flood disasters lacks the concept of probability, which is inconsistent with the technological development trend of related fields

Images