A Probability Analysis Method for Critical Rainfall of Mountain Flood Disaster

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for analyzing the probability of critical rainfall in mountain torrent disasters: extracting the information of non-disaster-caused heavy rain, obtaining the lower bound curve and upper bound curve of critical rainfall; The established linear relationship model is compared and analyzed to illustrate the superiority of the new method; the probability distribution model of the critical rainfall is fitted by the lognormal distribution, and the value range formed by the upper bound curve and the lower bound curve is approximately regarded as the 3σ of the critical rainfall Confidence interval, deduce the distribution parameters of critical rainfall, and then deduce the critical rainfall of mountain torrent disaster under different probability conditions. The comparison and analysis with the critical rainfall analysis and calculation method recommended by the national mountain torrent disaster prevention and control plan shows that the critical rainfall probability analysis method disclosed by the present invention has feasibility and reliability.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a critical rainfall probability analysis method, in particular to a critical rainfall probability analysis method for mountain torrent disasters, belonging to the technical field of mountain torrent disaster early warning. Background technique [0002] Generally speaking, the influencing factors of critical rainfall in mountain torrent disasters are mainly divided into rainfall factors, geological and geomorphic conditions, and human socioeconomic activities. [0003] The rainfall factor is the direct factor and excitation condition that induces the mountain torrent disaster. The occurrence of river floods and the induced debris flow and landslide disasters are closely related to rainfall factors. [0004] According to the characteristics of rainfall distribution in my country and the survey data of mountain torrent disasters, the spatial distribution of rainfall in the continental range is almost completely consistent with th...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] The critical rainfall analysis method in the existing technology does not pay enough attention to the previous rainfall, does not make full use of the information of the non-disaster rainfall series, and does not eliminate the outliers in the disaster-caused rainfall series, so the accuracy of the critical rainfall calculation value is often not enough. Have to rely too much on the personal experience of professionals; at the same time, the critical rainfall of flash flood disasters lacks the concept of probability, which is inconsistent with the technological development trend of related fields

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