Random response surface method-based probabilistic optimal power flow calculation method

Abstract

The invention discloses a random response surface method-based probabilistic optimal power flow calculation method. The method comprises the following steps of: first, expressing input random variables by a function relationship of a group of standard normal distribution variables by utilizing an equal probability transformation theory, so as to construct a second-order chaos polynomial corresponding to output variables; selecting appropriate configuration points of the normal distribution variables by using an optimal point selection method according to the number of undetermined coefficients in the chaos polynomial; converting the configuration point into sample point values of the input variables; for the random variables which have correlation, carrying out processing by applying an Nataf transformation theory so as to obtain a corresponding sample point; and finally, using the sample point as a disturbance variable to substitute to a power flow equation, carrying out deterministic optimal power flow calculation by using a prime-dual interior point method so as to obtain a system of linear equations about polynomial coefficients, solving the system of linear equations to obtain polynomial coefficients, obtaining numerical characteristics of the variable according to the obtained chaos polynomial of the variable, and estimating a probability density function and a probability distribution function of the variable by applying a kernel density estimation method.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a probabilistic optimal power flow (POPF) calculation method based on the random response surface method, which is suitable for solving the state variables and control of the power system POPF when considering the uncertainty of load and distributed energy access. Solving for probability distributions of variables. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of the global economy, the environment of countries around the world is deteriorating and energy is becoming increasingly scarce. These two problems have become global problems. These make it necessary to change the traditional energy development structure and continuously develop and utilize new energy to better promote the coordinated and sustainable development of the economy, environment, and society. Large-scale new energy access to the power system has become a trend. [0003] Optimal power flow (OPF) is an important tool for power system network planni...

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Problems solved by technology

The simulation method has high precision but low efficiency. Because the point estimation method and analytical method use Gram series, it may produce a probability distribution that does not satisfy the probability axiom, and it is not accurate enough.

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