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Method for forecasting passenger volume of urban rail transit under emergencies

A technology for urban rail transit and emergencies, applied in the field of urban rail transit, can solve the problem of not fully considering the diversity and possibility of travel plans

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-10-20
BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIV
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Existing rail transit passenger flow forecasting methods roughly handle passenger travel choices under emergencies, fail to fully consider the diversity and possibility of travel plans, and fail to effectively predict passenger flow based on actual needs

Method used

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  • Method for forecasting passenger volume of urban rail transit under emergencies
  • Method for forecasting passenger volume of urban rail transit under emergencies
  • Method for forecasting passenger volume of urban rail transit under emergencies

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Embodiment Construction

[0052] In order to illustrate the present invention more clearly, the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with preferred embodiments and accompanying drawings. Similar parts in the figures are denoted by the same reference numerals. Those skilled in the art should understand that the content specifically described below is illustrative rather than restrictive, and should not limit the protection scope of the present invention.

[0053] Such as figure 1 As shown, the present invention discloses a method for predicting urban rail transit passenger flow under an emergency, the method comprising:

[0054] S1: Obtain urban rail transit physical network information, train operation information, passenger flow data and emergency information, and determine urban rail transit passenger flow distribution and affected passenger flow data. The S1 may include:

[0055] S11: Acquire urban rail transit physical network information, train operation information,...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for forecasting the passenger volume of urban rail transit under emergencies. The method comprises steps of S1: acquiring urban rail transit physical network information, train running information, passenger volume data and emergency information to determine the passenger volume distribution and affected passenger volume data of urban rail transit; S2: constructing a set of alternative travel plans for passengers under emergencies, updating the affected passenger volume data after the passengers select each alternative travel plan; and S3: calculating the passenger volume of all stations of urban rail transit based on unaffected passenger volume data. The method fully considers the impact of emergencies on the operation of urban rail transit and considers the characteristics of passengers' travel behaviors under emergencies to improve the accuracy of forecasting passenger volume distribution of urban rail transit under emergencies. The method provides a theoretical basis to formulate an effective emergency plan and operation management measures, can effectively divert passengers stranded due to emergencies to protect passenger travel safety, and can improve the service level of the subway operation department.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of urban rail transit. More specifically, it relates to a method for predicting passenger flow of urban rail transit under emergencies. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of social economy, urban rail transit has become an important way of transportation in big cities due to its characteristics of large capacity, high efficiency, low energy consumption, and strong controllability of dispatching and commanding. In recent years, my country's urban rail transit has developed rapidly. Among them, rail transit in some major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou has entered the stage of network operation. Under the background of network operation, the passenger volume of urban rail transit continues to increase. Due to the characteristics of large passenger flow and complex network structure of urban rail transit, under the network conditions, once an emergency occurs, due to the ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/30
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/40
Inventor 姚恩建李斌斌唐英程欣
Owner BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIV
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