A simulation method based on the two-dimensional matrix of monthly runoff time displacement in the whole river

Abstract

The invention discloses a simulation method based on the two-dimensional matrix of monthly runoff time displacement of the whole river, which is characterized in that it includes the following steps: (1) constructing a three-layer simulation model based on Archimedes Copula and artificial neural network ; (2) Construct a single-site monthly runoff time series simulation model based on a symmetric Archimedes Copula and a multi-site monthly runoff joint distribution simulation model based on an asymmetric Archimedes Copula; (3) Calculate using the Kendall coefficient conversion method (4) Construct a simulation model of monthly runoff displacement sequence along the river based on artificial neural network. Advantages: It enriches the model library of medium and long-term hydrological forecasting. This model can not only simulate the monthly runoff time series of a single site, the joint distribution of multi-site menstrual columns, but also simulate the two-dimensional matrix of monthly runoff with two variables of time displacement; reasonably describe Temporal and spatial correlation structures.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a monthly runoff simulation method, in particular to a simulation method for a two-dimensional matrix of monthly runoff time displacement at any point in the whole river. Background technique [0002] The unified regulation of water resources in the basin first needs to clarify the risks and uncertainties of the complex hydrological system. The uncertainty of the hydrological system, including randomness, fuzziness, grayness and uncertainty, has always been a hot spot in hydrological research. The process of river inflow plays a vital role in reservoir scheduling, and its randomness is just one of hydrological uncertainties. The theory of stochastic process and time series analysis technology can be used to study the statistical variation characteristics of the runoff process, and provide a theoretical basis for the planning and scheduling of hydrological and water resource systems. It is one of the main ways to understand, des...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Existing multi-site runoff simulation models rely on existing historical data to simulate runoff at established hydrological stations, which can no longer meet the needs of unified water resources scheduling. This requires the development of a new runoff simulation model. The self-correlation relationship between the stations and the cross-correlation relationship between the stations are reduced by a certain method, so as to simulate the runoff time series at any point in the whole river

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