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A method and device for predicting polar service temperature

A prediction method and technology of prediction device, applied in the field of polar marine engineering, can solve the problem of insufficient accuracy of polar service temperature, and achieve the effect of comprehensive distribution and improved safety.

Active Publication Date: 2020-04-21
WUHAN MARINE MACHINERY PLANT
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0006] In order to solve the problem of insufficient accuracy of the polar service temperature in the prior art, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method and device for predicting the polar service temperature

Method used

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  • A method and device for predicting polar service temperature
  • A method and device for predicting polar service temperature
  • A method and device for predicting polar service temperature

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Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0049]The embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting polar service temperature, see figure 1 , the method includes:

[0050] Step 101: Obtain all temperature values ​​recorded by a set weather station within a set time period of at least two years.

[0051] In this embodiment, the weather station and the time period are set first, and then all temperature values ​​recorded by the weather station during the set time period in at least two years are obtained from the set weather station. Wherein, the set weather station is the nearest weather station to the area where the ship sails in the polar region, and the date in the set time period includes the same date as the date when the ship sails in the polar region.

[0052] In the specific implementation, before the ship sails in the polar region, the sailing plan will be prepared in advance. The sailing plan includes the date and area of ​​the polar region sailing. The date and area of ​​the ship sailin...

Embodiment 2

[0152] An embodiment of the present invention provides a device for predicting polar service temperature, see Figure 5 , the device consists of:

[0153] The obtaining unit 201 is used to obtain all the temperature values ​​recorded by the set weather station during the set time period of at least two years, and the set weather station is the weather station closest to the area where the ship navigates in the polar region, the dates of the set time period include the same dates as the ship sails in polar regions;

[0154] The first determining unit 202 is configured to use at least two time units to determine the minimum temperature value of each year among the obtained temperature values, and the time unit is a continuous period of time;

[0155] The second determining unit 203 is used to determine the probability function of the minimum temperature value when at least two time units are used according to the determined minimum temperature value of each year;

[0156] The ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a prediction method and device for polar region service temperature, and belongs to the field of polar region oceanographic engineering. The method comprises the steps: obtaining all temperature values recorded by a set meteorological station in set time periods of at least two years, wherein the set meteorological station is a meteorological station which is the nearest toa region where a ship navigates in a polar region, and the dates of the set time periods comprise a date which is the same as the date when the ship navigates in the polar region; determining the yearly minimum temperature values in the obtained temperature values through at least two time units, wherein the time units are respectively a continuous time period; respectively determining the probability functions of the minimum temperature values according to the yearly minimum temperature values when at least two time units are employed; and determining the minimum temperature values corresponding to at least two set probabilities from the probability functions of the minimum temperature values corresponding to at least two time units. The method provides the occurrence probability of theminimum temperature in different time units, and provides a more accurate reference for the temperature prediction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of polar marine engineering, in particular to a method and device for predicting polar service temperature. Background technique [0002] The polar regions, including the Antarctic and the Arctic, are the coldest regions on Earth. When a ship sails in polar regions, the stability of the ship may be weakened due to the cold climate, causing freezing of pipelines and failure of navigation equipment, reducing the safety of the ship. In order to ensure the safety of ship navigation, it is necessary to predict the ambient temperature of the ship when sailing in polar regions, and take corresponding anti-cold and anti-freeze measures according to the predicted ambient temperature. [0003] Polar Service Temperature (English: Polar Service Temperature, PST for short) is usually used to predict the ambient temperature of ships sailing in polar regions, and PST is the ambient low temperature when ships sail or operate in pola...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10
CPCG01W1/10Y02A90/10
Inventor 杨毅胡发国王荣军王恒智
Owner WUHAN MARINE MACHINERY PLANT