Flood probability forecast method based on error transfer density function

A density function, flood forecasting technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, electrical digital data processing and other directions, can solve the problem of not forming more mature theories and technical methods, and achieve the effect of quantifying forecast uncertainty

Active Publication Date: 2018-11-30
HOHAI UNIV
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At present, in our country, no matter at the research level or the application l

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  • Flood probability forecast method based on error transfer density function
  • Flood probability forecast method based on error transfer density function
  • Flood probability forecast method based on error transfer density function

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[0045] The present invention will be further explained below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments. It should be understood that the following specific embodiments are only used to illustrate the present invention and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention.

[0046] Below in conjunction with example the present invention will be further described.

[0047] Such as Figure 1-Figure 4 As shown, a flood probability forecast method based on the error transfer density function is characterized in that it includes the following steps:

[0048] Step 1: Construction of the historical database. According to the historical flood forecast data F and the corresponding measured flow data O, the historical flood forecast database (F, O) is established;

[0049] Step 2: Forecast error difference error analysis, under the background of the historical database, judge the variation trend of the statistical characteristic value of the flood...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a flood probability forecast method based on an error transfer density function. According to the method, a flood forecast historical database is constructed, a variation function of forecast error statistical characteristic values according to forecast flow is analyzed according to the historical database, the transfer density function of forecast errors is solved based ona forecast error first-order autoregressive hypothesis, and a distribution function of the forecast errors is solved through a total-probability formula. At last, the distribution function solving law of a random variable function is adopted to solve a distribution function of a forecast quantity. In this way, a flood probability forecast is realized, and flood forecast uncertainty is quantified.The method is applied to the flood probability forecast of a certain station, and it is verified by a data result that the flood probability forecast can be effectively realized through the method.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of hydrological forecasting and forecasting, in particular to a flood probability forecasting method based on an error transfer density function. Background technique [0002] Flood forecasting is an important component of non-engineering flood control and disaster reduction measures, and it is also a hot issue in hydrological science research. Theories and methods of flood forecasting have gone through the development process from empirical models to black box hydrological models with system theory concepts, to conceptual hydrological models integrating physical concepts and empirical generalization, and to distributed hydrological models with physical foundations. . But all the time, flood forecasting provides a deterministic fixed-value forecast. Due to the complexity of natural hydrological processes and the limitations of human understanding, there are inevitably uncertainties in input, model structure and mode...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06F17/30G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/26Y02A10/40
Inventor 梁忠民蒋晓蕾牛小茹胡义明王军李彬权
Owner HOHAI UNIV
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