A heat load forecasting method, device, readable medium and electronic equipment

Abstract

The invention discloses a heat load prediction method and device. The method includes: setting multiple prediction states and corresponding error thresholds to form a prediction model; A heat load level; determine the relative prediction errors corresponding to each test time period according to each first heat load level; form a state transition probability matrix according to each relative prediction error, and determine each future time period relative to each The state probability of a forecast state; the forecast model predicts the second heat load level corresponding to each future time period; for each future time period, according to its corresponding second heat load level, its relative to various forecast states The state probability and the error thresholds corresponding to various predicted states are used to determine the corresponding heat load interval. Through the technical solution of the present invention, it is convenient to carry out more efficient scheduling of boiler steam in the future.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of electrical engineering, in particular to a thermal load prediction method, device, readable medium and electronic equipment. Background technique [0002] In order to realize the efficient dispatching of the steam of the steam equipment, it is usually necessary to predict the heat load corresponding to the steam users using the steam in each future time period. [0003] At present, the autoregressive integrated moving average model (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model, ARIMA model) is usually used to predict the respective heat load levels corresponding to steam users using steam equipment steam in various future time periods. [0004] The ARIMA model can only predict the heat load level corresponding to steam users using steam in each future time period, that is, when a specific value is predicted, for irregular use of steam equipment in multiple consecutive historical time periods For a stea...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The ARIMA model can only predict the heat load level corresponding to steam users using steam in each future time period, that is, when a specific value is predicted, for irregular use of steam equipment in multiple consecutive historical time periods For a steam user of steam, there may be a large gap between one or more heat load levels predicted by the steam user and the current heat load level corresponding to the steam user actually using the steam of the steam equipment in the corresponding future time period. Differences, excessive single-point errors occur, resulting in the inability to efficiently dispatch the steam of the steam equipment in the subsequent process

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