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Head count prediction device, facility management system, and program

A technology for predicting device and number of people, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problem of the error of the number of people in the room, and achieve the effect of suppressing prediction errors and improving prediction accuracy.

Active Publication Date: 2019-05-21
MITSUBISHI ELECTRIC BUILDING SOLUTIONS CORP +1
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] However, in reality, for some reason, the number of occupants cannot be modeled and errors may occur

Method used

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  • Head count prediction device, facility management system, and program
  • Head count prediction device, facility management system, and program
  • Head count prediction device, facility management system, and program

Examples

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Embodiment approach 2

[0064] In the present embodiment, a case is shown in which a change model using a change in the number of occupants on the day of near-prediction is selected from the change model candidate group for each floor.

[0065] As described in Embodiment 1 above, the shape of the graph of the variation model for each floor differs depending on the operation method, etc. However, even on the same floor, there are patterns of various operation methods depending on the day of the week, etc. . For example, there may be a case where a regular off-duty day is set on a specific day of the week, or a case where the lunch time is set at a different time depending on the date. In such a case, it is possible to improve prediction accuracy by preparing a plurality of fluctuation model candidates for each floor in consideration of the mode of operation, and selecting a fluctuation model close to the predicted day occupancy fluctuation of the floor from those candidate groups.

[0066] Therefore,...

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Abstract

The present invention enables to, in the case when a discrepancy between a head count within an area and a head count indicated by a variation model used to predict a head count within said area is determined to be of a magnitude that requires an update to said variation model, constrain unnecessary update to the variation model for said area on the basis of the relation between a head count in another area and a variation model of said other area. The present invention has: a re-creation necessity determination unit 12 that, in the case when a discrepancy between a head count of those presentin the rooms on each floor (performance values) and a head count indicated by a variation model used to determine a predicted head count of those present in the rooms of said floor is found to be ofa magnitude that requires an update to said variation model, determines whether or not there is a need for updating the variation model for said floor, on the basis of the relation between the head count of those present in the rooms on another floor and a variation model for said other floor; a variation model re-creation unit 14 that re-creates a variation model only when it is determined that re-creation is necessary; and an in-room head count prediction unit 15 that predicts the head count of those present in the rooms on each floor on the basis of a variation model.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a device for predicting the number of people present, an equipment management system, and a program, and particularly relates to an update of a variation model showing temporal changes in the number of people present. Background technique [0002] When operating and managing equipment in a building such as a building, there are cases where it is desired to predict the number of occupants of each floor after a predetermined time, for example, one hour. Conventionally, there has been proposed a technique of creating a model from the number of occupants obtained from the number of passengers in an elevator and predicting the number of occupants according to the model (for example, Patent Document 1). [0003] However, in reality, for some reason, the number of occupants cannot be the same as the model, and errors may occur. In this case, in order to accurately predict the number of occupants of each floor after a predeter...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/16
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/16
Inventor 成井智祐妻鹿利宏川野裕希田口浩辻田亘
Owner MITSUBISHI ELECTRIC BUILDING SOLUTIONS CORP
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