Tunnel risk evaluation method based on fuzzy polymorphic Bayesian network
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A Bayesian network and risk assessment technology, applied in the field of tunnel engineering, which can solve problems such as judgment errors
Inactive Publication Date: 2019-07-26
BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIV
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[0003] At present, the identification and risk evaluation of risk factors in the risk management research of underground engineering are more focused on the overall and static risk level division using expert exp
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Embodiment 1
[0041] Example 1. As figure 1 As shown, the present invention provides a kind of tunnel risk evaluation method based on fuzzy polymorphic Bayesian network, and this method comprises the following steps:
[0042] Step 1. Establish an accident tree based on the tunnel risk by analyzing the accident history data;
[0043] In said step one, an accident tree based on risk factors is established, specifically including:
[0044] Step 1.1, through the analysis of the cause of the accident case, determine the basic events and intermediate events that lead to the risk;
[0045] Step 1.2, constructing a fault tree according to the relationship between the basic event and the intermediate event;
[0046] Among them, the risks include the level of collapse accidents, support strength, surrounding rock stability, design rationality, construction factors, unfavorable geological conditions, degree of exploration, completeness of data, rationality of parameter selection, construction standa...
Embodiment 2
[0080] Embodiment 2. System embodiment
[0081] The identification of risk factors based on historical data and the establishment of fault trees described in the embodiments of the present invention specifically include:
[0082] The influencing factors of tunnel collapse are complex, and most of the accidents are caused by the simultaneous action of multiple factors. Through the analysis and research of 40 mountain tunnel collapse accidents using the fault tree method, the basic events of the collapse accidents are determined as follows: As shown in the table, the fault tree is as figure 2 As shown, it can be divided into 5 intermediate nodes and 15 root nodes.
[0083] Table 4 Causes of collapse accidents
[0084]
[0085]
[0086] The construction of the fuzzy polymorphic Bayesian network structure based on the fault tree method described in the embodiment of the present invention specifically includes:
[0087] 2.1) Tunnel collapse, the tunnel may experience thre...
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Abstract
The invention discloses a tunnel risk evaluation method based on a fuzzy polymorphic Bayesian network. The invention provides an investigation method combining a confidence index, a weight index and aprobability interval based on expert judgment. According to the method, a tunnel risk accident tree is constructed according to an existing tunnel accident case, a basic event of a tunnel risk accident and the occurrence probability of each factor under the current technical level are obtained, and a polymorphic Bayesian network is constructed by the accident tree. The probability obtained by expert investigation and the probability obtained by case accidents are processed by a subjective and objective method to obtain a conditional probability, so that a polymorphic fuzzy Bayesian network conditional probability construction method and a tunnel risk probability calculation method are provided. According to the method, the subjectivity of risk factor identification can be reduced, the risk prediction accuracy is improved, informatization management and whole-process dynamic evaluation of underground engineering construction are realized, and the construction safety is ensured.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to a tunnel security risk assessment method, specifically a fuzzy polymorphic Bayesian network tunnel security risk assessment method based on the combination of subjective and objective data, belonging to the technical field of tunnel engineering. Background technique [0002] Underground projects such as tunnels have complex geotechnical medium environments, and the theory of design and construction is not yet complete. There are strong uncertainties in the construction process. It is a very complicated and high-risk system project. If the control is not effective, the project will The occurrence of risk accidents will cause significant property losses, casualties, delays in construction and adverse social impacts. A large number of engineering practices show that the current risk management can no longer meet the needs of informatization and modern construction. Therefore, it is an urgent problem to be solved in the developmen...
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