Photovoltaic power prediction optimization method and device for photovoltaic power station
A technology for power forecasting and photovoltaic power plants, applied in the field of new energy power generation control, can solve problems that are not conducive to improving the accuracy of power forecasting, can not carry out targeted optimization measures, and photovoltaic power generation output cannot meet the power system, so as to improve power forecasting level, high efficiency power predicts the effect of level
Active Publication Date: 2022-07-05
国家电网有限公司华北分部 +2
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[0003] However, the current prediction level of photovoltaic power generation output cannot meet the needs of the actual operation of the power system; in order to improve the accuracy of photovoltaic power prediction, the factors affecting photovoltaic power prediction can be analyzed by evaluating the photovoltaic power prediction error, and the photovoltaic power prediction can be adjusted according to the influencing factors , so as to improve the accuracy of photovoltaic power prediction
[0004] Existing photovoltaic power prediction error evaluation technologies are usually based on the prediction results and actual results for the macroscopic overall results, and cannot quantify and analyze the errors caused by various key links in photovoltaic power prediction, and cannot carry out corresponding optimization measures in a targeted manner, which is not conducive to Improve Power Prediction Accuracy
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[0067] In order to make those skilled in the art better understand the solutions of the present application, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present application. Obviously, the described embodiments are only The embodiments are part of the present application, but not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without creative work shall fall within the scope of protection of the present application.
[0068] As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present invention may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present invention may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardw...
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The present invention provides a photovoltaic power prediction and optimization method and device for photovoltaic power plants. The method includes: acquiring an optical-to-electrical conversion model, predicted data, actual measurement data and operation data of a photovoltaic power plant; according to the predicted data and the actual measurement Obtaining the total error of photovoltaic power prediction according to the data; obtaining equivalent prediction data according to the optical-electrical conversion model, the measured data and the operating data; according to the total error of the photovoltaic power prediction, the predicted data and the equivalent The error caused by each key link of photovoltaic power prediction can be obtained from the forecast data; optimizing each key link of photovoltaic power prediction according to the error caused by each key link can effectively improve the power prediction accuracy.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of new energy power generation control, in particular to a photovoltaic power prediction and optimization method and device for photovoltaic power plants. Background technique [0002] As an intermittent, random and volatile natural resource, solar energy may seriously affect the safe operation of the power system when its penetration rate exceeds a certain percentage. The photovoltaic power prediction of photovoltaic power plants is the core technology to ensure the safe and reliable operation of a high proportion of new energy power systems. The grid dispatching department makes a dispatching plan for various power sources according to the predicted photovoltaic power, and incorporates photovoltaic power generation into the conventional power generation plan in order to better Therefore, the prediction accuracy of photovoltaic power is directly related to issues such as grid peak regulation, unit combinati...
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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y02E40/70
Inventor 江长明柳玉杨健牛四清李丹谢旭邓立喻乐郭万舒
Owner 国家电网有限公司华北分部