New energy power generation power prediction optimization method and device
A power generation, prediction and optimization technology, applied in the direction of prediction, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., can solve the problems of new energy power generation output not meeting the power system, unfavorable power prediction accuracy, and unquantifiable errors
Active Publication Date: 2020-01-17
国家电网有限公司华北分部 +2
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[0004]
However, the current prediction level of new energy power generation output cannot meet the needs of the actual operation of the power system; in order to improve the prediction accuracy of new energy power generation power, the factors that affect the new energy power generation power prediction can be analyzed by evaluating the new energy generation power prediction error, and Adjust the forecast of new energy power generation power according to the influencing factors, so as to improve the accuracy of new energy power generation power forecast
[0005] Existing new energy power generation prediction error evaluation technologies are usually based on the prediction results and actual results for the macroscopic overall results, and cannot quantify and analyze the errors caused by each key link in the new energy power generation power prediction, and cannot carry out corresponding optimization in a targeted manner measures, not conducive to improving the power prediction accuracy
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[0068] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the solution of the present application, the technical solution in the embodiment of the application will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings in the embodiment of the application. Obviously, the described embodiment is only It is an embodiment of a part of the application, but not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in this application, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts shall fall within the scope of protection of this application.
[0069] Those skilled in the art should understand that the embodiments of the present invention may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Accordingly, the present invention can take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermor...
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The invention provides a new energy power generation power prediction optimization method and device. The method comprises: acquiring a new energy-electricity conversion model, prediction data, actualmeasurement data and operation data of a new energy power generation station; obtaining a new energy generation power prediction total error according to the prediction data and the actual measurement data; obtaining equivalent prediction data according to the new energy-electricity conversion model, the actual measurement data and the operation data; obtaining errors caused by each key link of new energy power generation power prediction according to the new energy power generation power prediction total error, the prediction data and the equivalent prediction data; and optimizing each key link of new energy generation power prediction according to errors caused by each key link, so that the power prediction precision can be effectively improved.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of new energy power generation control, in particular to a new energy power generation power prediction and optimization method and device for new energy power generation stations. Background technique [0002] New energy generally refers to renewable energy that is developed and utilized on the basis of new technologies, including solar energy, biomass energy, wind energy, geothermal energy, wave energy, ocean current energy, tidal energy, hydrogen energy, etc. New energy power generation is the use of existing The technology realizes the process of power generation through the above-mentioned new energy sources. [0003] Most new energy sources are intermittent, random, and volatile. When their penetration rate exceeds a certain percentage, the safe operation of the power system may be seriously affected. The prediction of new energy power generation power of new energy power stations is the core technolo...
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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y04S10/50
Inventor 柳玉杨健牛四清江长明李丹姜尚光陈曦李诗童
Owner 国家电网有限公司华北分部