Method for identifying parameters of new coronavirus propagation model based on Kalman filtering

A Kalman filter and propagation model technology, applied in epidemic alert systems, medical informatics, informatics, etc., can solve the problems of ignoring the time change of the propagation rate, the propagation model not considering the incubation period, and the low accuracy of parameter identification. To achieve the effect of improving the prediction accuracy

Pending Publication Date: 2021-04-23
DALIAN MARITIME UNIVERSITY
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The existing technology has the disadvantages of ignoring the change of the transmission rate with time, the propagation model does not consider the incubation period, the prediction accuracy is poor, the calculation is large, and the parameter identification accuracy is low.

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  • Method for identifying parameters of new coronavirus propagation model based on Kalman filtering
  • Method for identifying parameters of new coronavirus propagation model based on Kalman filtering
  • Method for identifying parameters of new coronavirus propagation model based on Kalman filtering

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Embodiment Construction

[0036] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments It is a part of embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0037] figure 1 It is an overall flow chart of the present invention, and the present invention proposes a method for identifying parameters of a new coronavirus transmission model based on Kalman filter theory, which is characterized in that it includes the following steps:

[0038] (1) Obtain a time series data set of the novel coronavirus pneu...

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Abstract

The invention provides a method for identifying parameters of a novel coronavirus propagation model based on a Kalman filtering theory, which is used for solving the technical problems in the prior art that an infectious disease model does not consider the incubation period and the infection rate does not consider the influence of time change, and comprises the following implementation steps of: obtaining a novel coronapneumonia epidemic situation data set; establishing an infectious disease propagation model, supplementing unknown parameters in the infectious disease propagation model by using a Kalman filtering algorithm, modeling an identified infection rate into a time-varying function which decreases progressively along with time, establishing an infection rate change model, and updating the infectious disease propagation model according to the infection rate change model to obtain an optimal infectious disease propagation model for establishing an optimal infectious disease propagation model; and predicting the infectious disease propagation condition by using the optimal infectious disease propagation model. The method effectively improves the accuracy of parameter prediction of the new coronavirus infection model.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of prediction of novel coronavirus transmission models, in particular to a method for identifying parameters of novel coronavirus transmission models based on Kalman filter theory. Background technique [0002] At present, most of the new coronavirus transmission models adopt the compartmental model (compartmental model). The infectious disease compartment model is the most commonly used infectious disease model in infection dynamics, and the SIR model is the most basic and classic model. According to the characteristics of the spread of the new coronavirus, this patent proposes a method based on Kalman filter theory to identify the parameters of the new coronavirus spread model to predict the evolution of infectious diseases. [0003] The existing technology has the disadvantages of ignoring the change of the transmission rate with time, the propagation model does not consider the incubation period, the pr...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G16H50/80
CPCG16H50/80
Inventor 马宝山齐吉双张新宇高宗江陈玉珍董恒谭皓文
Owner DALIAN MARITIME UNIVERSITY
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