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Infectious disease prediction method and system based on infectious disease dynamics and medium

A prediction method and technology for infectious diseases, applied in the fields of epidemic alert system, informatics, medical informatics, etc., can solve the problem that the SIR model cannot meet the refined management, affect the prediction accuracy of the SIR model, and does not consider population flow. , population density, etc.

Pending Publication Date: 2021-10-19
联通(广东)产业互联网有限公司
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, the traditional SIR model does not consider factors such as population flow and crowd distribution density, and the bias brought by these factors seriously affects the prediction accuracy of the SIR model; in addition, the traditional SIR dynamic model is based on the uniform distribution of the population Predict the trend of the epidemic based on assumptions, ignoring the impact of differences in population density in different regions on the spread of the epidemic. With the development of network communication, spatial positioning, big data and artificial intelligence technology, the traditional SIR model is not very good. Good to meet the needs of refined management

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  • Infectious disease prediction method and system based on infectious disease dynamics and medium
  • Infectious disease prediction method and system based on infectious disease dynamics and medium
  • Infectious disease prediction method and system based on infectious disease dynamics and medium

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Embodiment Construction

[0049] Embodiments of the present invention are described in detail below, and examples of the embodiments are shown in the drawings, wherein the same or similar reference numerals denote the same or similar elements or elements having the same or similar functions throughout. The embodiments described below by referring to the figures are exemplary only for explaining the present invention and should not be construed as limiting the present invention. For the step numbers in the following embodiments, it is only set for the convenience of illustration and description, and the order between the steps is not limited in any way. The execution order of each step in the embodiments can be adapted according to the understanding of those skilled in the art sexual adjustment.

[0050] The SIR model is a transmission model, an abstract description of the information dissemination process, and is the most classic model in the infectious disease model, where S represents the susceptible p...

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Abstract

The invention provides an infectious disease prediction method and system based on infectious disease dynamics and a medium, and the method comprises the following steps: determining an infectious disease screening region, and carrying out the finite element region division of the screening region according to the crowd density of the screening region, and obtaining a plurality of sub-regions; determining population flow rate parameters according to the population flow factors among the plurality of sub-regions; determining the number of changing people in the sub-region according to the population flow rate parameter, and constructing an infectious disease dynamic model of the sub-region; and predicting the transmission condition of infectious diseases through finite element analysis and an infectious disease kinetic model. According to the method, the development trend of epidemic diseases or infectious diseases can be predicted in a refined manner according to the characteristics of epidemic disease or infectious disease transmission, a disease control department is helped to take reasonable prevention and control measures in time to deal with the influence caused by epidemic disease transmission, and the method can be widely applied to the technical field of epidemic disease prediction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of epidemic prediction, in particular to an infectious disease prediction method, system and medium based on infectious disease dynamics. Background technique [0002] Infectious diseases have been the greatest enemy that endangers human health since ancient times. Epidemic infectious diseases that occurred in history have brought huge disasters to human survival. For example, in the 2nd century AD, the popular antonine plague in the Roman Empire deteriorated its economy and population, and invaders took advantage of it, leading to the collapse of the Roman Empire. The prevention and control of infectious diseases is related to national health and the national economy and people's livelihood, and to do a good job in prevention and control requires a clear understanding of the laws of disease prevalence. Infectious disease dynamics is to establish a mathematical model that can reflect the law of change based...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G16H50/80G06F17/13
CPCG16H50/80G06F17/13
Inventor 朱艳春曾杰川柳子用郑宇浩邱述洪
Owner 联通(广东)产业互联网有限公司
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