Infectious disease prediction method and system based on infectious disease dynamics and medium

Abstract

The invention provides an infectious disease prediction method and system based on infectious disease dynamics and a medium, and the method comprises the following steps: determining an infectious disease screening region, and carrying out the finite element region division of the screening region according to the crowd density of the screening region, and obtaining a plurality of sub-regions; determining population flow rate parameters according to the population flow factors among the plurality of sub-regions; determining the number of changing people in the sub-region according to the population flow rate parameter, and constructing an infectious disease dynamic model of the sub-region; and predicting the transmission condition of infectious diseases through finite element analysis and an infectious disease kinetic model. According to the method, the development trend of epidemic diseases or infectious diseases can be predicted in a refined manner according to the characteristics of epidemic disease or infectious disease transmission, a disease control department is helped to take reasonable prevention and control measures in time to deal with the influence caused by epidemic disease transmission, and the method can be widely applied to the technical field of epidemic disease prediction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of epidemic prediction, in particular to an infectious disease prediction method, system and medium based on infectious disease dynamics. Background technique [0002] Infectious diseases have been the greatest enemy that endangers human health since ancient times. Epidemic infectious diseases that occurred in history have brought huge disasters to human survival. For example, in the 2nd century AD, the popular antonine plague in the Roman Empire deteriorated its economy and population, and invaders took advantage of it, leading to the collapse of the Roman Empire. The prevention and control of infectious diseases is related to national health and the national economy and people's livelihood, and to do a good job in prevention and control requires a clear understanding of the laws of disease prevalence. Infectious disease dynamics is to establish a mathematical model that can reflect the law of change based...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, the traditional SIR model does not consider factors such as population flow and crowd distribution density, and the bias brought by these factors seriously affects the prediction accuracy of the SIR model; in addition, the traditional SIR dynamic model is based on the uniform distribution of the population Predict the trend of the epidemic based on assumptions, ignoring the impact of differences in population density in different regions on the spread of the epidemic. With the development of network communication, spatial positioning, big data and artificial intelligence technology, the traditional SIR model is not very good. Good to meet the needs of refined management

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