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Solar energy resource ultra-short time forecasting method based on ground-based cloud picture

A technology for solar energy resources and ground-based cloud maps, which is applied in the fields of ultra-short-term forecasting of solar energy resources, electronic equipment, and computer-readable storage media, and can solve problems such as low temporal resolution and spatial resolution, and limited forecast accuracy.

Active Publication Date: 2021-06-18
中国气象局公共气象服务中心 +1
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  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Due to the low time resolution and spatial resolution of satellite cloud images, when using satellite cloud images for radiation forecasting, it is necessary to downscale the satellite cloud images, and the forecasting accuracy is limited

Method used

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  • Solar energy resource ultra-short time forecasting method based on ground-based cloud picture
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  • Solar energy resource ultra-short time forecasting method based on ground-based cloud picture

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Embodiment approach

[0072] For any one of the real-time all-sky cloud images, the step of determining the historical sun shading level according to the cloud coverage area of ​​the current real-time all-sky cloud image includes:

[0073] Determine the position of the sun in the current real-time all-sky cloud map;

[0074] The surrounding area of ​​the sun in the current real-time all-sky cloud image is analyzed to determine the historical sun occlusion level.

[0075] In the present disclosure, there is no special limitation on how to calculate the position of the sun in the real-time all-sky cloud map. For example, the position of the sun in the real-time all-sky cloud map can be calculated through the lens installation position of the all-sky imager, azimuth information, time information of the region where the all-sky imager is installed, and the distortion projection function of the fisheye lens picture .

[0076] In order to comprehensively consider the influence of various factors, a dee...

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Abstract

The invention provides a solar energy resource ultra-short time forecasting method based on ground-based cloud pictures. The solar energy resource ultra-short time forecasting method comprises the following steps: determining historical cloud information based on a plurality of original ground-based cloud pictures obtained by an all-sky imager in a past preset time period; establishing a cloud cover forecasting model according to the historical cloud information; determining a forecast cloud cover according to the cloud cover forecasting model, wherein the forecast cloud cover is the cloud cover in a future preset time period; establishing a clear sky radiation forecast model according to historical clear sky radiation data in a past preset time period; establishing a cloud attenuation model according to the historical cloud information; determining a cloud sky radiation model according to the clear sky radiation forecast model and th'e cloud attenuation model; and determining solar radiation output in the future predetermined time period by using the cloud sky radiation model according to the forecast cloud amount.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the field of solar energy resource forecasting, in particular to a method for ultra-short-term forecasting of solar energy resources based on ground-based cloud images, a computer-readable storage medium, and an electronic device. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the increasingly prominent environmental and energy issues, photovoltaic power generation, as a new energy source, has developed particularly rapidly. Surface solar irradiance is the most direct climatic factor affecting the power of photovoltaic power generation. However, surface solar irradiance changes periodically and randomly with seasons and weather. Therefore, photovoltaic power generation has obvious intermittent and fluctuations. [0003] Factors affecting the solar irradiance on the surface include clouds, aerosols, water vapor content, etc. Among them, clouds are the most important factor affecting the solar irradiance reaching the...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F30/27G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06Q50/26G06F119/12
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06Q50/26G06F30/27G06F2119/12
Inventor 叶冬吕宝磊申彦波姚锦烽王传辉刘钧王捷儒胡玥明乌日柴胡李利秋
Owner 中国气象局公共气象服务中心
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