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A method for ultra-short-term forecasting of solar energy resources based on ground-based cloud images

A technology for solar energy resources and ground-based cloud map, which is applied in the fields of computer-readable storage media, ultra-short-term forecasting of solar energy resources, and electronic equipment, and can solve problems such as low temporal resolution and spatial resolution, and limited forecast accuracy.

Active Publication Date: 2021-08-24
中国气象局公共气象服务中心 +1
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  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Due to the low time resolution and spatial resolution of satellite cloud images, when using satellite cloud images for radiation forecasting, it is necessary to downscale the satellite cloud images, and the forecasting accuracy is limited

Method used

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  • A method for ultra-short-term forecasting of solar energy resources based on ground-based cloud images
  • A method for ultra-short-term forecasting of solar energy resources based on ground-based cloud images
  • A method for ultra-short-term forecasting of solar energy resources based on ground-based cloud images

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment approach

[0072] For any one of the real-time all-sky cloud images, the step of determining the historical sun shading level according to the cloud coverage area of ​​the current real-time all-sky cloud image includes:

[0073] Determine the position of the sun in the current real-time all-sky cloud map;

[0074] The surrounding area of ​​the sun in the current real-time all-sky cloud image is analyzed to determine the historical sun occlusion level.

[0075] In the present disclosure, there is no special limitation on how to calculate the position of the sun in the real-time all-sky cloud map. For example, the position of the sun in the real-time all-sky cloud map can be calculated through the lens installation position of the all-sky imager, azimuth information, time information of the region where the all-sky imager is installed, and the distortion projection function of the fisheye lens picture .

[0076] In order to comprehensively consider the influence of various factors, a dee...

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Abstract

The present disclosure provides a method for ultra-short-term forecasting of solar energy resources based on ground-based cloud images. The method for ultra-short-term forecasting of solar energy resources includes: determining historical cloud information based on multiple original ground-based cloud images obtained by an all-sky imager within a predetermined period of time in the past ; Establish a cloud cover forecast model according to the historical cloud information; determine the forecast cloud cover according to the cloud cover forecast model, and the forecast cloud cover is the cloud cover in the future predetermined time period; according to the historical clear sky radiation in the past predetermined time period Set up a clear-sky radiation forecast model based on the data; set up a cloud attenuation model according to the historical cloud information; determine the cloud-sky radiation model according to the clear-sky radiation forecast model and the cloud attenuation model; Describe the solar radiation output for a predetermined period of time in the future.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the field of solar energy resource forecasting, in particular to a method for ultra-short-term forecasting of solar energy resources based on ground-based cloud images, a computer-readable storage medium, and an electronic device. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the increasingly prominent environmental and energy issues, photovoltaic power generation, as a new energy source, has developed particularly rapidly. Surface solar irradiance is the most direct climatic factor affecting the power of photovoltaic power generation. However, surface solar irradiance changes periodically and randomly with seasons and weather. Therefore, photovoltaic power generation has obvious intermittent and fluctuations. [0003] Factors affecting the solar irradiance on the surface include clouds, aerosols, water vapor content, etc. Among them, clouds are the most important factor affecting the solar irradiance reaching the...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F30/27G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06Q50/26G06F119/12
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06Q50/26G06F30/27G06F2119/12
Inventor 叶冬吕宝磊申彦波姚锦烽王传辉刘钧王捷儒胡玥明乌日柴胡李利秋
Owner 中国气象局公共气象服务中心
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