Reservoir flood control risk calculation method and system based on ARIMA model in future scene

A risk calculation and scenario technology, applied in calculation, stochastic CAD, probabilistic CAD, etc., can solve problems such as failure to reflect the development trend of floods

Active Publication Date: 2021-07-09
HUAZHONG UNIV OF SCI & TECH +1
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

Stochastic simulation is another feasible risk analysis method, but most of the existing research is based on historical flood sequence modeling, which reflects the statistical characteristics of historical floods and fails to reflect the development trend of floods under future climate scenarios

Method used

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  • Reservoir flood control risk calculation method and system based on ARIMA model in future scene
  • Reservoir flood control risk calculation method and system based on ARIMA model in future scene
  • Reservoir flood control risk calculation method and system based on ARIMA model in future scene

Examples

Experimental program
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Effect test

Embodiment

[0066] This example takes the Yangfanggou Reservoir in the Yalong River Basin as an example. The Yangfanggou Reservoir is located at the main stream of the Yalong River in Muli County, Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Sichuan Province, between the Yajiang Hydrological Station (upstream) and the Maidilong Hydrological Station. (Downstream) Between two control sections, catchment area is 80880km 2 , the reservoir design flood (once in 500 years) is 9320m 3 / s, the calibration flood (once in 5000 years) is 11200m 3 / s, the corresponding design flood level is 2096.27m, and the check flood level is 2099.91m.

[0067] Step S1. Taking Yangfanggou Reservoir as the research object and 1981-2005 as the base period, construct an ASD downscaling model based on the measured data during the base period and NCEP reanalysis data. The large-scale predictors under the RCP8.5 scenario in the global climate model GFDL are input into the ASD downscaling model to generate precipitation and tem...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a reservoir flood control risk calculation method and system based on an ARIMA model in a future scene, and belongs to the technical field of reservoir flood control risk analysis. A climate scene and a hydrological simulation technology are combined, an ARIMA random model is established for a future flood sequence, statistical characteristics of future flood are simulated, meanwhile, it is assumed that an initial value in the model obeys probability distribution deduced by historical flood data, and then a random model capable of reflecting past, current and future flood statistical characteristics at the same time is constructed; and the reservoir flood control risk calculation method and system in the future scene aim at achieving reservoir flood control risk calculation in the future climate change scene, and a scientific basis is provided for design and operation of a reservoir.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of reservoir flood control risk analysis, and more specifically relates to reservoir flood control risk calculation based on ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model, differential integrated moving average autoregressive model, also known as integrated moving average autoregressive model) model in future scenarios methods and systems. Background technique [0002] Climate change is an indisputable fact, resulting in the widespread and frequent occurrence of extreme hydrological events, which in turn affects the flood control safety of reservoirs. The flood control safety design of existing reservoirs is based on past historical flood data. Under the background of climate change, the frequency and magnitude of future floods will change drastically, which may lead to an increase in the flood control risk of the reservoir. How to measure the reservoir’s safety in future scenarios Flood con...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F30/20G06Q10/06G06F111/08
CPCG06F30/20G06Q10/0635G06F2111/08Y02A10/40
Inventor 闫宝伟郭靖李正坤刘金华张磊磊刘昱唐俊龙江慧宁王浩穆冉
Owner HUAZHONG UNIV OF SCI & TECH
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