Analysis method and system for epidemic propagation

Abstract

The invention provides an analysis method and system for epidemic propagation, and the method comprises the steps of determining a multi-layer coupling network of information and epidemic cooperative diffusion based on a microcosmic Markov chain method; dividing all nodes into high-information-quality nodes and low information-quality nodes according to the conversion efficiency, wherein the conversion efficiency refers to the efficiency of converting absorbed external epidemic information into self-prevention consciousness; when the conversion efficiency of the nodes is within a preset range, classifying the nodes as high-information-quality nodes, and otherwise, classifying the nodes as low-information-quality nodes; based on the probability that each node obtains prevention consciousness from external information, the probability that a node without prevention consciousness is infected by an infected neighbor, the probability that an infected node recovers a health state, and the probability that a node with prevention consciousness and in a susceptible state converts consciousness into a protection behavior to reduce the probability that the node is infected by itself, determining the probability that each node is in three different states in the multi-layer coupling network.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of epidemic spread analysis, and more specifically relates to an epidemic spread analysis method and system. Background technique [0002] The existing technology provides a large-scale population contact network modeling method for epidemic prevention and control, including: using tensors to model dynamic population contact networks, wherein the spatial basis is used to represent the spatial pattern of the dynamic population contact network, and the linear combination of the basis is used The coefficient represents the time pattern of the dynamic population contact network; constructs a virtual society that includes multiple virtual scenes; The epidemic transmission model and corresponding pathological parameters are combined with the dynamic population contact network to establish an optimization objective function to obtain the time pattern of the dynamic population contact network; the dual iterative optimization ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0007] Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a method and system for analyzing the spread of an epidemic, aiming to solve the problem that the current technologies for simulating the epidemic are few and relatively simple, and do not use multi-layer coupling Network to explore the spread mechanism of the epidemic, without considering the issue of information literacy from the perspective of individual heterogeneity

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