A Method and System for Statistical Correction of Anomaly Integral Dynamics of Numerical Forecast Products

A numerical forecasting and product technology, applied in the field of dynamic statistical correction of numerical forecasting product anomalies, to reduce systematic errors, improve forecasting accuracy, and improve the effectiveness of available forecasts

Active Publication Date: 2022-04-22
中国气象局气象干部培训学院四川分院
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Problems solved by technology

[0015] However, there is a lack of a specific and effective method for improving the accuracy of numerical prediction in the prior art

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  • A Method and System for Statistical Correction of Anomaly Integral Dynamics of Numerical Forecast Products

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[0088] In order to make the technical problems, technical solutions and beneficial effects solved by the present invention clearer, the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described here are only used to explain the present invention, not to limit the present invention.

[0089] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a numerical forecast correction method and correction system that can effectively reduce the systematic error of ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast products, significantly improve its forecast accuracy and available forecast timeliness, and can effectively improve the short-term and medium-term performance of the product. —Forecasting capabilities of extended periods, severe precipitation and other severe weather systems.

[0090]Specifically, the present invention proposes a numerical for...

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Abstract

The present invention provides a numerical forecast product anomaly integral dynamic statistical correction method and system, comprising: step 1, data preprocessing process; step 2, climate average state extraction process; step 3, physical decomposition process; step 4, correction process: Using ERA‑Interim reanalysis data to correct the circulation field results of ECMWF medium-range numerical forecast products, and using hourly precipitation datasets to correct the precipitation results of ECMWF medium-range numerical forecast products. The present invention provides a numerical forecast product anomaly integral dynamic statistical correction method and system, which is a numerical forecast correction method and system that can effectively reduce the systematic error of ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast products, significantly improve its forecast accuracy and available forecast timeliness The revised system can effectively improve the forecasting ability of the product in the short-term-extended period, heavy precipitation and other severe weather systems.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of numerical weather forecasting, in particular to a method and system for correcting numerical forecast product anomaly integral dynamic statistics. Background technique [0002] The development of numerical weather prediction has made remarkable achievements, especially in the past ten years with the more accurate model dynamic framework, more reasonable parameterization scheme, more intensive observation data, more perfect assimilation technology, and the advancement of computers, large-scale calculation With the improvement of capability and model resolution, the effective forecasting time of numerical weather forecast has been continuously extended, and the forecast accuracy rate has been continuously improved. Numerical forecast has become the most important means of weather forecast. Among them, the numerical forecast products of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are ahead...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F30/20G06F17/18G06Q50/26G06F111/10
CPCG06F30/20G06F17/18G06Q50/26G06F2111/10
Inventor 常俊彭新东车玉章
Owner 中国气象局气象干部培训学院四川分院
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