Forecasting method and device of telephone traffic in ordinary holiday of telecommunication network

Abstract

The invention discloses a forecasting method and a device of telephone traffic in an ordinary holiday of a telecommunication network, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring the history value of telephone traffic of the network as history sample data, pre-processing the history sample data and obtaining normal sample data; carrying out modeling and forecasting on the normal sample data by utilizing a forecasting model; utilizing a variance analysis method to carry out a significance test of difference of the telephone traffic in holidays and the telephone traffic at ordinary time on the normal sample data; if the difference of the telephone traffic in holidays and the telephone traffic at ordinary time is significant, carrying out correction on forecasting values of the forecasting model and obtaining a final forecasting value; or the forecasting value of the forecasting model is the final forecasting value. The invention also discloses a forecasting device of telephone traffic in an ordinary holiday telecommunication network, so the invention can carry out accurate forecasting on the telephone traffic in the ordinary holiday.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of telecommunication network management, and relates to the performance analysis of the telecommunication network, in particular to the prediction of the traffic index of the telecommunication network. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of the communication industry, the business volume carried by the telecommunications network is increasing rapidly. In order to grasp the development trend of the telecommunications network operation, it is necessary to be able to accurately predict the bearing status of the telecommunications network business, and the traffic volume is the most important measurement traffic One of the indicators of load. Accurately predicting the traffic volume can avoid risks in time, and preparing a series of countermeasures before predicting the peak traffic volume is of great significance for improving the operation quality of the telecommunication network. The traffic volum...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, due to the inherent differences in people's work and lifestyle during ordinary festivals and non-holidays, it is impossible to obtain accurate results simply by using the ARIMA model to predict the traffic volume of ordinary festivals.

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