Atmospheric heavy pollution forecast method based on combination of numerical model and statistic analysis

Abstract

An atmospheric heavy pollution forecast method based on a combination of a numerical model and a statistic analysis includes that: national centers for environmental prediction (NCEP) global forecast ambient field data are obtained; a forecast trigger command is compulsively generated by manual power or automatically generated after the operation of a meteorological model finishes; a forecast command is started to obtain a meteorological factor data set of a simulation area and surrounding areas; air quality monitoring data are obtained; a forecast factor set data file is generated; the visibility of a forecast day is obtained through a visibility forecast sub-mode; an air quality level of the forecast day is differentiated in a qualitative mode through a pollution level initial differentiation sub-mode; a weather type of the forecast day is diagnosed and identified through a weather type identification sub-mode; pollutant concentration of the forecast day is calculated through a heavy pollution quantitative forecast sub-mode; a hazard level of the pollution level to a human body is confirmed, and administrators are provided with a decision basis for emergency management. Compared with a high concentration pollution weather forecast effect of existing air quality forecast systems at home and abroad, the atmospheric heavy pollution forecast method based on the combination of the numerical model and the statistic analysis remarkably improves the air pollution forecast effect.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting heavy atmospheric pollution with a complete system, in particular to an air quality forecasting and early warning method based on a combination method of numerical model and statistical analysis that is specially aimed at the process of heavy atmospheric pollution and can reflect regional characteristics of pollution. Background technique [0002] With the rapid economic growth, the urbanization process is accelerating, and the number of motor vehicles has increased significantly, the trend of air pollution in my country has not been fundamentally curbed, and continuous high-concentration air pollution occurs frequently. Hundreds of heavy atmospheric particulate matter pollution processes (heavy pollution process refers to the collective name of pollution processes with an air pollution index greater than 200 on that day), and the concentration of particulate matter often exceeds the national standard by s...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Generally speaking, the air quality in developed countries is relatively good, and high-concentration pollution rarely occurs, and their operational forecasting systems are established on the basis of local geography, meteorology, and pollution characteristics, while my country and other countries are prone to high-density pollution. The geographical location, meteorological and underlying surface conditions, and regional pollution discharge characteristics of countries with high concentration pollution are very different from those of the above countries. Therefore, the forecast methods commonly used in developed countries are only suitable for low concentration pollution forecasts and cannot be realized. Accurate forecasting of high-concentration pollution is difficult to directly apply to countries with frequent heavy air pollution

However, the air quality forecasting business systems of most cities in my country use one or more methods of potential forecasting, statistical forecasting and numerical forecasting. There are still large errors in the forecast. Through the comparison of the daily air quality daily released by the Ministry of Environmental Protection and the forecast data, it is found that the forecast method has a better forecast effect on non-heavy pollution weather, but the reporting rate of heavy pollution weather is insufficient. 40% (the forecast day is high-concentration pollution, and the forecast result level is high-concentration pollution, which is regarded as reporting), and the false alarm rate is higher than 35% (the forecast day is not high-concentration pollution, and the forecast result level is high-concentration pollution, which is regarded as a false report) At present, the forecast effect is far from meeting the important needs of providing health guidance for the public and guiding residents to make reasonable arrangements for travel and life.

[0005] To sum up, at present, there is no effective technical method at home and abroad to accurately forecast the process of heavy air pollution. The existing air quality forecasting systems and methods have a high forecast accuracy for low-to-medium concentration pollution weather, but they are not effective for regional characteristics. The forecast error of the increasingly obvious heavy air pollution process is relatively high

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