Atmospheric heavy pollution forecast method based on combination of numerical model and statistic analysis
A numerical model and statistical analysis technology, applied to the analysis of materials, weather forecast, meteorology, etc., can solve the problem of high false alarm rate, unsatisfactory forecast effect, less than 40% (the forecast day is high-concentration pollution, the forecast result level For problems such as high-concentration pollution, achieve accurate forecast results, improve forecast results, and reduce the probability of false alarms
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[0047] Example January 11, 2013 Beijing High Concentration Pollution Forecast
[0048] At 11:00 on January 11, 2013 (Beijing time), the system automatically obtains the 08 time data of the NCEP global forecast background field data of the day, and runs the weather model to obtain the weather field forecast from 08:00 on January 11 to 20:00 on January 12 As a result, the required meteorological element data is extracted and converted. At the same time, the air quality monitoring values of 12 state-controlled stations in Beijing from 06:00 to 10:00 on January 11 were obtained from the air quality online monitoring system. Each integrated factor is calculated by the predictor factor integration sub-model, and combined with some original extracted elements to generate a predictor set data file. Run the visibility forecast sub-mode, the pollution degree preliminary judgment sub-mode, the weather type identification sub-mode and the heavy pollution quantitative forecast sub-mode ...
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